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Fate or future of intertidal flats in estuaries and tidal lagoons - Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities -

Funder: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)Project code: 842.00.007
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Fate or future of intertidal flats in estuaries and tidal lagoons - Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities -

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Delta regions like The Netherlands and China (Shanghai area) are centres of socio-economic activities. They form important parts of water systems and are vulnerable to climate change. They are also influenced by human activities, not only in the region themselves, but also in the river basin. The intertidal flats (including salt marshes and mudflats) in estuaries border the navigation channels; form the start for land reclamation; serve as buffers for sea defence; are sinks of pollutants and nutrients; and are habitats for flora and fauna. It is therefore of utmost importance to predict the morphological development of the intertidal flats with regard to climate change and anthropogenic activities from an economic and ecological point of view for a sustainable management of the delta. The aim of the study is to improve our ability in predicting the development of tidal flats in estuaries and tidal lagoons under influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The key objectives are: " To obtain more insight into the development of the tidal flats and the underlying processes and mechanisms. " To specify the predictability of the development of the tidal flats. " To improve the model that accounts for the processes determining the morphodynamics of intertidal flats. " To improve the modelling, to forecast the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities and to test the ways of handling uncertainties. System analysis based on field observations and experiments with process-based models as digital lab will be carried out to obtain better understanding of the development of intertidal flats and the underlying processes/mechanisms. Special attention will be paid to the effects of events like storms/typhoons. In developing prediction tools and predicting the development of intertidal flats for future scenarios not only the more or less deterministic long-term trend, but also the stochastic short-term variations will be considered.

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