Towards prediction of the future breeding distribution and migration of pink-footed geese as a response to climate warming
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Climate change is fastest in the Arctic. Here migratory birds have to arrive in time to breed successfully. We found that pink-footed geese, that traditionally breed on Spitsbergen, have recently developed a whole new migration route to Novaya Zemlya. Novaya Zemlya lies 1000 km to the east and spring starts later there, enabling the geese to still arrive in time. Changes in agriculture in the wintering areas have caused goose populations and hence conflicts with farmers to increase. Our individual-based model of foraging geese suggests that total economic costs are lowest when geese are not scared off.
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