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Predicting the ability of populations to adapt in function of their evolutionary history and their environmental background
Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR)Project code: ANR-13-JSV7-0002
Funder Contribution: 213,694 EUR
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Description

We are currently confronted to a crisis of extinction affecting biodiversity as a result of global change (habitat fragmentation, climate warming, etc.) that are pushing the limits of the tolerance to environmental constraints of plant and animal species. Available and suitable habitats where species could find refuge are rare. Species survival will hence depend largely on their ability to adapt. Will that adaptive potential be sufficient for species to maintain themselves? Today, we have methods and data from the domain of population genetics that allow us to evaluate genetic diversity of the basis of neutral molecular markers, which are hence independent from natural selection. Those tools allow us to identify the populations that are the least diverse and the most isolated, for which genetic diversity is suffering erosion, over the range of species geographic distribution. Methods in ecology allow us to characterise the environmental conditions defining the habitat of species across the geographic distribution. On the basis of climate change, it is possible to project to some extent what will the environment be like in the future in the current habitat of species. Quantitative genetics methods allow us to evaluate the degree of local adaptation of populations and to quantify their potential to respond to selection. Species have adapted to their environment in the past, and such adaptation was sometimes fast. Is this option still available to them today? It is surprising that those three scientific domains are so rarely bridged to evaluate the ability of species to adapt to global change, especially when considering the potential positive input that such multidisciplinary approaches would have on conservation strategies and genetic resources management. In this project, we will conduct an empirical approach at the intersection of those three scientific domains in order to evaluate the ability to adapt of the plant species Antirrhinum majus to environmental changes. We have characterised some part of the evolutionary history of A. majus. We identified patterns of geographic expansion and found evidence that some populations over the 55 populations that we surveyed across the entire geographic range of the species (Pyrenees and Mediterranean coast) had exchanged genes in the past. We expect that populations originating from areas where gene exchanges were documented will be less locally adapted than others because gene flow will have homogenised their gene pool and therefore limited their adaptive divergence. We also expect those populations to have a greater potential to adapt because gene exchanges will have broaden their heritable variation. We will test those hypotheses in turn by conducting a local adaptation experiment and a response to selection experiment on multiple populations. Studying adaptive processes without an environmental perspective on the relationship between environmental selective pressures and fitness makes no sense. We have characterised the ecological niche of A. majus, i.e., the range of environmental conditions suitable for its populations across its entire geographic range. Unsurprisingly, populations from the highest and lowest altitudes were found to be confronted to more extreme conditions than populations from intermediate altitudes, respectively more rigorous winters and stronger drought episodes. We will simulate climate change by transplanting populations in natura towards lower altitudes and we will characterise the relationship between plant fitness and the genetic architecture of quantitative traits. Population genetics and ecological niche data are accumulating in the scientific literature. We will provide the community of scientists and conservation managers with a tool box of methods that we used in our approach and with practical guidelines to quantify directly the adaptive potential of species.

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