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RACE

Rapid Arctic environmental Changes: implications for well-being, resilience and Evolution of Arctic communities
Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR)Project code: ANR-20-AORS-0002
Funder Contribution: 191,000 EUR
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Description

The RACE project addresses the impacts of rapid climate and environmental changes in the Arctic on infrastructure and pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics. By using best available datasets from in-situ and satellite observations and reanalyses together with climate model simulations under CMIP6 RACE will develop improved regional assessments of Arctic Social Indicators, which will be further used for the projections of population dynamics factors as well as demographic and life quality trends of Arctic communities. For the first time results of large-scale climate diagnostics and projections will be used and translated into social indicators and further into demographic variables by using socioeconomic and demographic models, thus providing accurate regional projections of the Arctic population dynamics which presently are routinely relaying exclusively on economy forecasts. The RACE work packages include accumulation and pre-processing of the available climatic, environmental, and socio-economic data for the last decades, which allows for the quantitative assessment of climate and environmental changes in the Arctic critical for the industrial activities and human well-being. They will be used for the development of regional population dynamics umbrella scenarios under different climate change scenarios and associated projections for environment and infrastructure. Of a special importance will the analysis of feedbacks between environmental factors, infrastructure and social indicators and case studies which will identify regions/cities at risk of rapid rates of mortality, net migrations, changes of population structure. RACE scientific results and deliverables will consist of databases of climate and environmental changes in the present and future climate, assessments of their impact onto community well being, projections of climate-mediated pan-Arctic and regional population dynamics and resulting recommendations on future sustainable development of the Arctic communities. RACE results will provide input of immediate relevance for the ongoing IPCC 6th Assessment Report, for Arctic Council Assessments and to the national Climate Change and Sustainability Reports and thus will help to define and implement the growing factor of a changing environment in building strategies for the social-economic development in the Arctic and pan-Arctic regions in the 21st century.

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