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High altitude precipitation and the related accumulation rates on the glaciers are variables with the highest uncertainties, when it comes to assessing the status of the cryosphere in High Mountain Asia (HMA), especially in the poorly documented Pamir Mountains in Central Asia. Within the RECAP project, we propose an integrated study, which combines novel field observations with state of the art analysis of remote sensing observations to feed into regional climate models and detailed modelling of the snow and firn conditions. The central objective of this proposal is to better quantify the spatio-temporal variability of accumulation and precipitation at high elevation in the Pamir Mountains, from local scale (centered on Fedchenko Glacier) to regional scale and assess its evolution over the past century (1900-present). Methodology - During the course of the RECAP project, the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) will be configured to produce the first centennial atmospheric reanalysis covering the period 1900-present over the whole Pamir mountains. The model will be calibrated using both local meteorological observations (WP1 and existing data from the past) and remote sensing data (WP2), and testing different global reanalysis as lateral conditions. Finally, we will produce a reanalysis covering the period since 1900, the time span leading from almost natural conditions to a strong increase of anthropogenic impact on the climate and cryospheric system (WP3). The data produced will be used to investigate the variability of both climate and cryosphere from daily to centennial timescales. Snow modelling will help to relate precipitation and accumulation at high elevation (WP4), which is not straightforward considering that surface processes such as sublimation, melt or snow drift may reduce the amount of solid precipitation deposited on glaciers. The synthesis (WP5) will provide an integrated overview of the regional climate changes in the Pamir mountains, and in particular its impact on the cryosphere. Impacts - The climate and surface mass balance reconstruction from the RECAP project is all the most needed and timely as a deep core will be extracted from the accumulation basin of Fedchenko Glacier in 2024 within the funded PAMIR project (funded by the Swiss Polar Institute). The project outcomes will help interpret this ice core, in particular to assess whether the climate conditions and changes from the core are representative of the region, and to assess how surface mass balance processes (melt, sublimation, snow drift) have changed over the last decades in response to the anthropogenic impacts on climate. The collaboration between the Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement will foster rich exchanges, and will complement existing bilateral collaborations with the research teams of Fribourg University and from the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). All the members of the project are engaged in capacity building, which will consist in the development of the collaboration with scientists of Center for the Glaciers Study of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan (CRG) in Dushanbe. Tadjik partners will join the project members in the field and will visit the Bavarian Academy of Science for a training session. Risk assessments - We carefully selected the field sites to offer the best compromise between the feasibility of the measurements and their spatial variability. The PIs of the project have a long standing record of investigating glacier systems in the Alps and HMA. The team is experienced in remote sensing, climate modelling and surface mass balance process modelling, meaning that partial success of the field campaigns will still allow the project to be largely successful in the other aspects.
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