Peak electricity demand is becoming an increasingly significant problem for UK electricity networks as it causes imbalances between demand and supply with negative impacts on system costs and the environment. The residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand and up to 40% of peak demand. During peak demand, electricity prices in wholesale markets could fluctuate from less than £0.03/kWh to as much as £0.29/kWh. Time of Use tariffs offer significant potential benefits to the system by enabling responsive electricity demand and reducing peaks. For example, this could reduce the need for new generation and network capacity. However, the impact of more cost-reflective pricing will vary between consumers. In particular, those who consume electricity at more expensive peak periods, and who are unable to change their consumption patterns, could end up paying significantly more. Understanding the distributional effects of Time of Use tariffs becomes vital to ensuring affordability of energy bills, whilst making demand more flexible. Whilst there is research on fuel poverty in relation to aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about the effects of dynamic tariffs on different socio-demographic groups. DEePRED will fill this gap. The overall aim of DEePRED is to analyse the distributional effects of Time of Use tariffs with a view to identify clusters of users which might significantly benefit or be disadvantaged through the provision of demand flexibility. The project will analyse 10-minute resolution time use activity data from the UK Office for National Statistics Time Use Survey with a view to derive information about times of the day in which different groups of people occupy households and carry out energy-related activities. The time use data will be combined with parameter data on temperatures, sunlight, number and typical consumption of household appliances and dwelling types to derive load profiles. This will take place thanks to the implementation of activity schemes. Load profiles data will then be used to calculate how consumer bills may change for different groups of consumers on stylised Time of Use tariffs.

Peak electricity demand is becoming an increasingly significant problem for UK networks as it causes imbalances between demand and supply with negative impacts on system costs and the environment. The residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand (DECC, 2013). During peak demand, electricity prices in wholesale markets could fluctuate from less than 0.04 Euros/kWh to as much as 0.35 Euros/kWh (Torriti, 2015). In the future the peak problem is expected to worsen due to the integration of intermittent renewables in the supply mix as well as high penetration of electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. Understanding what constitutes peaks and identifying areas of effective load shifting intervention becomes vital to the balancing of demand and supply of electricity. Whilst there is information about the aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about residential peak demand and what levels of flexibility might be available. REDPeak will fill this gap. The overall aim of REDPeak is to analyse the variation in sequences of activities taking place at times of peak electricity demand with a view to identify clusters of users which might provide flexibility for peak shifting intervention. The project will analyse 10-minute resolution time use activity data from the UK Office for National Statistics Time Use Survey with a view to derive information about occupancy and synchronisation of activities. Markov chains will be used to model load profiles in combination with appliance-specific parameter data. Since Markov chains have proven effective at generating electricity load profiles except for peak times, REDPeak will develop Hybrid Monte Carlo modelling to account for demand moving in larger steps during peak periods. Sequence analysis will be used to mine activities at periods of peak electricity demand. REDPeak will cluster respondents according to sequences of activities and analyse to what extent appliance-specific control variables explain activities at specific times of the day. Three datasets will be used for direct validation between metered data and time use data. Findings on sequence analysis will feed into algorithms for automated demand management or Demand Side Response.

The global energy sector is facing considerable pressure arising from climate change, depletion of fossil fuels and geopolitical issues around the location of remaining fossil fuel reserves. Energy networks are vitally important enablers for the UK energy sector and therefore UK industry and society. Energy networks exist primarily to exploit and facilitate temporal and spatial diversity in energy production and use and to exploit economies of scale where they exist. The pursuit of Net Zero presents many complex interconnected challenges which reach beyond the UK and have huge relevance internationally. These challenges vary considerably from region to region due to historical, geographic, political, economic and cultural reasons. As technology and society changes so do these challenges, and therefore the planning, design and operation of energy networks needs to be revisited and optimised. Electricity systems are facing technical issues of bi-directional power flows, increasing long-distance power flows and a growing contribution from fluctuating and low inertia generation sources. Gas systems require significant innovation to remain relevant in a low carbon future. Heat networks have little energy demand market share, although they have been successfully installed in other northern European countries. Other energy vectors such as Hydrogen or bio-methane show great promise but as yet have no significant share of the market. Faced with these pressures, the modernisation of energy networks technology, processes and governance is a necessity if they are to be fit for the future. Good progress has been made in de-carbonisation in some areas but this has not been fast enough, widespread enough across vectors or sectors and not enough of the innovation is being deployed at scale. Effort is required to accelerate the development, scale up the deployment and increase the impact delivered.

The UK energy system is changing rapidly. Greenhouse gas emissions fell by 43% between 1990 and 2017, and renewables now account for 30% of electricity generation. Despite this progress, achieving emissions reductions has been difficult outside the electricity sector, and progress could stall without more effective policy action. The Paris Agreement means that the UK may have to go further than current targets, to achieve a net zero energy system. Reducing emissions is not the only important energy policy goal. Further, progress need to be made whilst minimising the costs to consumers and taxpayers; maintaining high levels of energy security; and maximising economic, environmental and social benefits. There is a clear need for research to understand the nature of the technical, economic, political, environmental and societal dynamics affecting the energy system - including the local, national and international components of these dynamics. This proposal sets out UKERC's plans for a 4th phase of research and engagement (2019-2024) that addresses this challenge. It includes a programme of interdisciplinary research on sustainable future energy systems. This is driven by real-world energy challenges whilst exploring new questions, methods and agendas. It also explains how UKERC's central activities will be developed further, including new capabilities to support energy researchers and decision-makers. The UKERC phase 4 research programme will focus on new challenges and opportunities for implementing the energy transition, and will be concerned with the three main questions: - How will global, national and local developments influence the shape and pace of the UK's transition towards a low carbon energy system? - What are the potential economic, political, social and environmental costs and benefits of energy system change, and how can they be distributed equitably? - Which actors could take the lead in implementing the next stage of the UK's energy transition, and what are the implications for policy and governance? To address these questions, the research programme includes seven interrelated research themes: UK energy in a global context; Local and regional energy systems; Energy, environment, and landscape; Energy infrastructure transitions; Energy for mobility; Energy systems for heat; and Industrial decarbonisation. The proposal sets out details of research within these themes, plans for associated PhD studentships and details of the flexible research fund that will be used to commission additional research projects, scoping studies and to support integration. A first integration project on energy and the economy will be undertaken at the start of UKERC phase 4. The research themes are complemented by four national capabilities that form part of the research programme: an expanded Technology and Policy Assessment (TPA) capability; a new Energy Modelling Hub; the UKERC Energy Data Centre; and a new Public Engagement Observatory. Research within TPA and the Observatory will align and integrate with the main research themes. These four capabilities will also enhance UKERC's ability to provide evidence, data and expertise for academic, policy, industry and other stakeholder communities. The UKERC headquarters (HQ) team will support the management and co-ordination of the research programme; and will also undertake a range of other functions to support the broader UK energy research community and its key stakeholders. These functions include promoting networking and engagement between stakeholders in academia, policy, industry and third sector (including through a networking fund), supporting career development and capacity building, and enhancing international collaboration (including through the UK's participation in the European Energy Research Alliance).

The global energy sector is facing considerable pressure arising from climate change, depletion of fossil fuels and geopolitical issues around the location of remaining fossil fuel reserves. Energy networks are vitally important enablers for the UK energy sector and therefore UK industry and society. Energy networks exist primarily to exploit and facilitate temporal and spatial diversity in energy production and use and to exploit economies of scale where they exist. The pursuit of Net Zero presents many complex interconnected challenges which reach beyond the UK and have huge relevance internationally. These challenges vary considerably from region to region due to historical, geographic, political, economic and cultural reasons. As technology and society changes so do these challenges, and therefore the planning, design and operation of energy networks needs to be revisited and optimised. Electricity systems are facing technical issues of bi-directional power flows, increasing long-distance power flows and a growing contribution from fluctuating and low inertia generation sources. Gas systems require significant innovation to remain relevant in a low carbon future. Heat networks have little energy demand market share, although they have been successfully installed in other northern European countries. Other energy vectors such as Hydrogen or bio-methane show great promise but as yet have no significant share of the market. Faced with these pressures, the modernisation of energy networks technology, processes and governance is a necessity if they are to be fit for the future. Good progress has been made in de-carbonisation in some areas but this has not been fast enough, widespread enough across vectors or sectors and not enough of the innovation is being deployed at scale. Effort is required to accelerate the development, scale up the deployment and increase the impact delivered.