Evidence is growing that the migration behaviour of many species is changing in response to environmental change, with resident individuals being reported in previously wholly migratory populations and increases in the proportion of non-migrants being reported for a range of bird species in Europe. These rapid changes in migratory behaviour provide an opportunity to identify the control mechanisms underpinning these complex and highly evolved behaviours, and thus their capacity to adapt to changing environmental conditions. This project will fill a major current gap in migration science, by identifying the mechanisms influencing demography and behaviour of migratory and non-migratory individuals, and it will contribute to the understanding of the capacity for migratory behaviour to respond to rapid environmental change. As many migratory bird species are currently suffering rapid population declines, and many migratory species are hunted in Southern Europe, understanding these mechanisms is necessary to allow predictions of future changes in migratory bird populations, which is key to improve the effectiveness of protected area networks across Europe and Africa, and to reduce potential conflicts between migratory species and human activities. The capacity for migratory behaviour to adapt to environmental changes will be influenced by whether individuals can alter their migration strategies, or whether changes in relative fitness are required to alter the proportions of differing strategies in a population. Facultative changes in individual migration strategies are likely to allow more rapid responses to environmental change, but such control mechanisms may be influenced by social or environmental factors. Identifying the control mechanisms influencing changes in migration systems therefore requires a study system in which individual migration strategies, their consistency and demographic consequences can all be quantified. The proposed study involves a species of migratory bird for which there is annual variation in migration and for which individuals have been tracked on their migratory journeys: lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni). We aim to identify the mechanisms enabling changes in migratory behaviour by exploring the influence of social relationships, behavioural adaptations and heritability on individual migration strategies. We will incorporate this information in population models in order to explore the relative importance of individual plasticity in behaviour and demographic variation in altering rates and patterns of change in migratory behaviour, and the potential influence of future changes in climatic conditions and resource availability. This project will produce results of considerable practical value, as well as addressing fundamental questions about the mechanisms underlying changes in migratory behaviour. Understanding the capacity for migratory behaviour to adapt to changing environmental conditions is key to predicting future changes in migratory populations, identifying and implementing appropriate conservation strategies, and exploring the role of these changes in the ongoing population declines of many Afro-Palearctic migratory bird species.

Advances in smart structures and active materials during the last decade are likely to yield significant advances in aircraft design though the controlled change of wing shape, often referred to as wing morphing. The concept of a morphing wing is not a new one; wing morphing has been used in most aircraft to a limited extent over the last century. As an example, one can look at the flap system that exists on most aircraft. This morphing technology enables a wing, that is designed for cruising, to increase its camber, thereby improving its performance for landing and take-off. This technology revolutionized the industry, making air travel safer, cheaper and more convenient. As we move further into the 21st century, the materials now available provide a greater latitude in the design of morphing aircraft. It is now possible to not only consider take-off, landing and cruise conditions, but also loiter, climb, turn and dash conditions, to name a few. More fuel efficient flight and control surface free roll control will also be possible through the use of morphing technologies. This S3T Eurocores proposal consists of three interrelated projects that will investigate and evaluate critical vehicle and technology issues related to morphing aircraft. Overall performance requirements will be developed for several innovative actuation systems and morphing concepts. A number of modelling methodologies will be developed to provide a better predictive capability for morphing aircraft, along with advancing morphing design and optimisation techniques. All of the individual novel concepts and methodologies will be validated using wind tunnel models. Finally, a remotely piloted vehicle that is already been developed and flight tested in the framework of a EU collaboration between the CRP partners will be used for proof-of-concept analysis and flight testing of the proposed morphing strategies.

The long term vision of this proposed research is of statistical science enhanced by emerging geometries, driven by the needs of science, industry and government. Examples of ultimate impact include unique conspicuous benefits for experimental scientists, product development teams and policy-makers. The fundamental driver for this vision is that, given a statistical problem, an appropriate geometry can inform a novel, enhanced methodology for it. Colloquially: 'use the right tool for the job'. Statistics, with its procedures for reasoning under uncertainty, is deeply embedded across science, industry and government. A picture being worth a thousand words, while requiring invariance to irrelevant choices, many of its methods are based on geometry. The resulting invariant insights come at a price - that of finding a match between, on the one hand, underlying geometric axioms and, on the other, statistical conditions appropriate to a given applied context. Whereas global Euclidean geometry matches many contexts very well, increasingly, advances and challenges in science and elsewhere are throwing up important problems which demand that alternatives be used. A variety of geometries - affine, convex, differential, algebraic - have been emerging to meet these challenges. To ensure maximal impact and provide the appropriate context in which to focus the advances to be made in theoretical and methodological development, this project targets 3 generic statistical problems where such alternative geometries are required. These problems present some of the most exacting challenges to statistical methodology while offering vast potential in application: (1) dealing with model uncertainty, (2) estimating mixtures and (3) analysing high dimensional low sample size data. Each was central to a recent cutting-edge event hosted, respectively, by the Royal Society, the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences and the Isaac Newton Institute, their identified fields of application including: theoretical physics, cosmology, biology, economics, health, image analysis, microarray analysis, finance, document classification, astronomy and atmospheric science, as well as the media, government and business. Rooted in two new research areas - invariant coordinate selection and computational information geometry - this ambitious programme will bring together and extend emerging geometries for these important generic statistical problems. Developing the necessary underlying theory, it will provide novel, geometrically-enhanced, methodologies as tools for practical application. Pursuing potentially transformative blue sky lines of enquiry, it will enlarge both research areas leading to further new methodologies. In concert with cognate research communities, it will widely articulate the overall vision announced above. Ultimately, this work will have a very broad impact. The following specific pathways to this end have been identified, embedded statisticians facilitating pathways 2 to 4: 1. Cognate research communities will be stimulated by advances in mathematical and computational statistics, fundamental theory underpinning new methodologies. 2. Science can ultimately benefit from more efficient theory-practice iteration. 3. The economy can ultimately benefit from faster, better product development. 4. Society can ultimately benefit from more robust policy-making. 5. With their project-enhanced transferable skills, the 2 PDRAs will be ideal recruits to many areas of science, industry or government, as well as to higher posts in academia.

We propose to build on the successes of the ALPHA-X project with a new programme of research to investigate and develop novel compact radiation sources that explicitly exploit laser-driven plasma waves. The project will take forward the development of wakefield accelerators and utilise the sub-10 fs electron bunches accelerated in plasma channels to produce ultra-short pulses of coherent infrared to x-ray radiation in a FEL and coherent radiator structures. The main objective will be to push towards hard x-rays and gamma rays by utilising the very short spatial period undulator-like structures of plasma waves to lay down the foundations of sources in a spectral region hitherto not accessible. We will also push the frontiers of ultra-short pulse generation by: i) controlling and reducing the electron bunch duration from wakefield accelerators using pre-bunching techniques, which will also increase the peak current available while reducing the pulse length from a radiation source, and by ii) investigating the generation and tailoring of arbitrary shaped single-cycle pulses (initially in the visible) by backscattering tailored terahertz pulses from relativistic mirrors formed by relativistic plasma wakes and ionisation fronts. The experimental programme to develop these novel compact radiation sources will utilise the unique facilities at Strathclyde, set up under the ALPHA-X project, and resources available in the EU, US and China, to provide a mix of long-term development programmes and short-term (6-week) campaigns that take advantage of the particular laser beam characteristics available at the facilities. An important aspect of the project will be a substantial theoretical programme that will be undertaken by an established team of theoreticians that has previously worked together under ALPHA-X, and new teams that bring new approaches and backgrounds to bear on the significant theoretical challenges. The large group of collaborators provide both breadth and depth to the programme, and through their contributions and access to their various facilities, will also enable very effective use of resources. The programme of research is central to a UK roadmap that outlines potential new landscapes and ways forward in the field.

We propose to build on the successes of the ALPHA-X project with a new programme of research to investigate and develop novel compact radiation sources that explicitly exploit laser-driven plasma waves. The project will take forward the development of wakefield accelerators and utilise the sub-10 fs electron bunches accelerated in plasma channels to produce ultra-short pulses of coherent infrared to x-ray radiation in a FEL and coherent radiator structures. The main objective will be to push towards hard x-rays and gamma rays by utilising the very short spatial period undulator-like structures of plasma waves to lay down the foundations of sources in a spectral region hitherto not accessible. We will also push the frontiers of ultra-short pulse generation by: i) controlling and reducing the electron bunch duration from wakefield accelerators using pre-bunching techniques, which will also increase the peak current available while reducing the pulse length from a radiation source, and by ii) investigating the generation and tailoring of arbitrary shaped single-cycle pulses (initially in the visible) by backscattering tailored terahertz pulses from relativistic mirrors formed by relativistic plasma wakes and ionisation fronts. The experimental programme to develop these novel compact radiation sources will utilise the unique facilities at Strathclyde, set up under the ALPHA-X project, and resources available in the EU, US and China, to provide a mix of long-term development programmes and short-term (6-week) campaigns that take advantage of the particular laser beam characteristics available at the facilities. An important aspect of the project will be a substantial theoretical programme that will be undertaken by an established team of theoreticians that has previously worked together under ALPHA-X, and new teams that bring new approaches and backgrounds to bear on the significant theoretical challenges. The large group of collaborators provide both breadth and depth to the programme, and through their contributions and access to their various facilities, will also enable very effective use of resources. The programme of research is central to a UK roadmap that outlines potential new landscapes and ways forward in the field.