The Southern Amazon faces the greatest climatic threat of all Amazon regions. This region is drier and warmer than 'core' areas of the Amazon and has been subject to the most pronounced drying and warming trends. It is also the region of the Amazon where increases in tree mortality have been most marked and where atmospheric measurements suggest forests are no longer acting as a carbon sink but as a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. Given that Southern Amazon is at the front line of the Amazon's battle against climate change, it is essential that we better understand how resistant its forest species are to climate stress. In Lethal Psi, we will construct a new 1-hectare drought experiment to better understand the physiological survival limits of southern Amazon trees. It has become increasingly clear that the process of hydraulic failure plays an important role in drought-induced tree mortality. Water is transported from the soils to the canopy under tension. As drought ensues and the soil dries, the tension in the xylem vessels that transport water intensifies and this can lead to the formation of air bubbles (embolism) in xylem vessels, disrupting water transport to the canopy and ultimately resulting in tree death. While this process is understood in general terms, one critical current knowledge gap is that we don't know the thresholds in embolism formation that result in the death of tropical trees. This lack of understanding of the physiological thresholds that result in death constitutes a key uncertainty for accurately modelling tree mortality under climate change. Determining the hydraulic thresholds of tree death is not an easy task and requires monitoring tree hydraulic status up to the point of death. In Lethal Psi, we track key indicators of hydraulic function (e.g. leaf water potentials and sap flux) from the beginning of our imposed drought all the way to the death of the tree to quantify how loss of xylem conductance translates into mortality risk. While other drought experiments have been set up in Amazonia, these did not monitor embolism status before and during the mortality process and were thus unable to provide insights into physiological thresholds of survival. Up to now, drought experiments have only been set up northeastern Amazonia, where annual rainfall is almost twice that of our study site and where changes in climate have been much less pronounced than in southern Amazonia. Given their ecotonal nature and the rapid climate change experienced in southern Amazonia, we expect that trees in this region are much closer to their climatic limits and will experience much more accentuated mortality under imposed drought than observed in northeastern experiments. Ultimately, we plan to use the newly acquired field data to develop improved mortality functions that we will apply more broadly across southern Amazonia to better predict drought mortality risk of this critically important region. This will be done by updating a unique trait-based model specifically developed to simulate Amazon forests and their responses to environmental change.

SUMMARY The Amazon is the most important biome of South America, harbouring extraordinarily high levels of biodiversity and providing important ecosystems services. This biome is particularly notable for evolving independently from fire and in a moist, warm climate. In recent decades, altered fire regimes and an increasingly hotter and drier climate has pushed this key biome towards ecological thresholds that will likely lead to major losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services. Similarly, the ecotonal forests at the Amazon-Cerrado transition are unique ecosystems in terms of form and function, but they may be the first to suffer large-scale tree mortality and species loss due to the combined effects of increased anthropogenic disturbance, altered fire regimes and a drier climate. Vulnerability of fire and droughts are closely intertwined in Amazonian and transitional forests because fires in this region only occur when there is water stress and a human ignition source. Thus, drought increases vulnerability to fire, but we do not yet understand the magnitude and spatial variation of these vulnerabilities. Once a forest burns there is immediate tree mortality, but recent evidence also shows a significant time-lagged mortality that can last for decades, becoming an important carbon source. However, the mechanistic processes that lead to time-lagged tree mortality in this myriad of forest ecosystems encompassing the Amazon biome and the Amazon-Cerrado transition are still poorly understood. We also lack knowledge on how these processes might vary spatially across the biome and its transition. A better understanding of the mechanisms that lead to tree mortality after fires and droughts is needed to design future policies that emphasise nature-based solutions including restoration and natural regeneration. This proposal presents a multi-level approach that aims at deciphering the mechanisms that underly vulnerability to fire and time-lagged post-fire mortality across the tropical forests in Amazon and Amazon-Cerrado transition. To achieve this aim, we will quantify fire vulnerability at three different scales and link them through an upscaling approach. First, we will identify the ecological mechanisms, reflected through functional traits, that explain why individuals and species die after fires occur. For this, we will focus on poorly understood traits that can be related to fire and/or hydraulic functioning. Second, at the community scale, we will examine how vegetation structure, community traits and microclimate affect the probability to burn, through an intensive characterisation of different vegetation types with multispectral and light detection and ranging (LIDAR) imagery. Third, we will use our our unique ground-dataset on functional traits, vegetation structure and moisture dynamics, and the latest state-of-art remotely sensed information on structure and water stress to predict the vulnerability of the Amazon forests and Amazon-Cerrado transitional forests. This information will be directly applicable for the detection of sensitive hotspots (areas particularly vulnerable to fire) through satellite products. We will deliver quantifiable early-warning metrics of ecosystem vulnerability to fire that can be mapped and incorporated into fire management policies. This is a revised version of a NERC proposal that was rejected with a score of 7 by the NERC Panel in July 2020, and we have carefully addressed the Panel's comments. Specifically, we have clarified the methodology and we have reformulated the hypotheses, so they address vulnerability to fire and not drought fire-interactions.

Wildfires are becoming the new normal across Amazonia. Deforestation is transforming the region at a rate of around 10,000 square km/year (half the area of Wales), and now the area degraded annually -forest logged and burned but not cut down-is greater than the area deforested. Fire has historically been rare in Amazonia, meaning that the forests are not adapted to fire and the trees often die from fires - releasing carbon (C) back to the atmosphere and amplifying global climate change. Burning of tropical forests is already releasing more climate-warming carbon dioxide than fossil fuel burning in the whole of Europe. Trees in Amazonia contain around 7x more C than humans are releasing every year, and soils contain the same amount again, so it is vital to understand what is happening to this C and minimize emissions. As vegetation sheds its leaves, branches, and roots, or dies, some of the C released remains in the soil, and some is later decomposed and released back to the atmosphere. Carbon exists in the soil in many different forms, from new inputs from decomposing plant material to ancient C formed over millennia. Burning adds pyrogenic carbon (PyC) to the soil, a partially burnt form of C that is resistant to decomposition and could make the soil more fertile. Because soil C takes a long time to form, its conservation is particularly important. Despite the widespread increase in fire in Amazonia, there have been few measurements of soil C fractions and dynamics in burned areas - most have focussed on natural forests. Burned forests will have different composition, forest structure, and C dynamics. Understanding how different soil C fractions are formed and lost is crucial to understand how fire and climate change affect C storage. We propose to make major advances in understanding fire impacts, including the processes that affect the type and quantifies of soil C formed, and how C gains/losses vary over time, with soil type, and climate. We will combine new measurements with innovative modelling to inform land management strategies and C budgets. We have already collected data from across Amazonia in intact forests that have not recently burned. Crucially our project will collect a new, comprehensive dataset from human-modified forests, including logged, burned and abandoned land. We will use an approach known as a chronosequence, where we take samples at sites that were burnt at different times in the past, so we can see how the soil C has changed after e.g. 1 year, 2 years, or up to 20 years after a fire. This will then be used to develop a state-of-the-art land surface model, JULES, which forms part of the UK Earth System Model. At our sample sites, we will evaluate how different burn severities affect soil C, both in surface and deep soils, and how these change over time post-burning and with soil, climate, and land-use such as logging. At 3 focal sites, we will take detailed measurements of the decomposition rate of the C over 4 years, comparing measurements with different land-use, burn severity and wet vs dry seasons. Knowing what forms C takes after a fire and how fast it decomposes under different conditions will enable us to build these processes into the JULES model. We will model PyC globally for the first time and make projections of land C changes in Amazonia over the next ~40-60 years under different management practices. As well as transforming scientific understanding of post-fire soil C and its resilience to climate and management, our project will inform socio-environmental planning for sustainable resource use to conserve soil C. We will work with regional partners, fire managers, state and national policymakers to integrate our findings into decision-making to minimise negative fire impacts. Due to the Amazon Basin-scale of our work, these strategies are a crucial step to limit the risk of large-scale loss of soil C.

Forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle because they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis, and store the carbon in wood and soil. All living things in forests also produce carbon dioxide through respiration as an inevitable consequence of sustaining themselves and growing. At present, forests take in more carbon dioxide than they release, helping to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere, but this 'free gift' from forests is not guaranteed to continue at its current rate indefinitely under climate change. As well as the carbon cycle, forests are also crucial in the water cycle as trees pump water from the soil into the atmosphere. Leaves are the key part of the plant that regulates the exchange of gases (water, carbon dioxide) with the atmosphere. The pores in the leaf surface (stomata) are important for water loss and temperature control as well as the entry of carbon dioxide. Leaves exposed to direct sunlight can be more than ten degrees hotter than the air, even in temperate latitudes. Leaf temperature is important because many biological processes, including photosynthesis and respiration, are sensitive to temperature; very high temperatures can cause immediate and acute damage to leaves. Over the coming century, we expect carbon dioxide concentrations and air temperatures to continue to rise. When trees are grown in higher carbon dioxide concentrations, stomata close and limit water loss; this prevents the plant dehydrating but also reduces how much leaves can cool down. However, there is limited monitoring on forest canopy temperatures, and limiting understanding on how different species and forests in different climate zones are responding to climate change. This project will build a global network of researchers working to measure forest canopy temperatures using thermal infrared cameras, which will provide both greater understanding and also a crucial data resource for scientists in other disciplines to utilise. The network will ensure that the data collected by separate groups are comparable, and aid data processing and analysis by providing clear guidance and tools. This is will encourage other researchers to take up use of thermal infrared cameras, the analysis of which can be challenging. Our network will monitor canopy temperatures at fourteen sites in tropical and temperate forests and savannah, in UK, China, India, Australia, Brazil, Peru, Panama, USA, and Ghana. The sites in the UK and Peru will be newly established by this project. Ten sites already have established data collection, while the final two sites (Australia, Ghana) are in development. Having data collected using cameras will allow us to understand not only how forests in different locations are behaving, but also whether and how different species within sites respond. The long-term nature of the project means that seasonal variation will be included, and the forest response to extreme events such as heat waves and droughts will be quantified. Future work will establish in more detail how changes to canopy temperature link to changes in forest carbon and water cycling. Our work providing insight into the response of forest canopies to climate change will inform models produced to assess the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the planet, which are used to inform global climate change policies. Further, the current global emphasis on mitigating climate change through tree planting makes it crucial to assess how these trees will cope under future conditions.

The ecosystems of the dry tropics are in flux: the savannas, woodlands and dry forests that together cover a greater area of the globe than rainforests are both a source of carbon emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation, and also a sink due to the enhanced growth of trees. However, both of these processes are poorly understood, in terms of their magnitude and causes, and the net carbon balance and its future remain unclear. This gap in knowledge arises because we do not have a systematic network of observations of vegetation change in the dry tropics, and thus have not, until now, been able to use observations of how things are changing to understand the processes involved and to test key theories. Satellite remote sensing, combined with ground measurements, offers the ideal way to overcome these challenges, as it can provide regular, consistent monitoring at relatively low cost. However, most ecosystems in the dry tropics, especially savannas, comprise a mixture of grass and trees, and many optical remote sensing approaches (akin to enhanced versions of the sensors on digital cameras) struggle to distinguish changes between the two. Long wavelength radar remote sensing avoids this problem as it is insensitive to the presence of leaves or grass, and also is not affected by clouds, smoke or the angle of the sun, all of which complicate optical remote sensing. Radar remote sensing is therefore ideal to monitor tree biomass in the dry tropics. We have successfully demonstrated that such data can be used to accurately map woody biomass change for all 5 million sq km of southern Africa. In SECO we will create a network of over 600 field plots to understand how the vegetation of the dry tropics is changing. and complement this with radar remote sensing to quantify how the carbon cycle of the dry tropics has changed over the last 15 years. This will provide the first estimates of key carbon fluxes across all of the dry tropics, including the amount of carbon being released by forest degradation and deforestation and how much carbon is being taken up by the intact vegetation in the region. By understanding where these processes are happening, we will improve our knowledge of the processes involved. W will use these new data to improve the way we model the carbon cycle of the dry tropics, and test key theories. The improved understanding, formalised into a model, will be used to examine how the dry tropics will respond to climate change, land use change and the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2. We will then be able to understand whether the vegetation of the dry tropics will mitigate or exacerbate climate change, and we will learn what we need to do to maintain the structure of the dry tropics and preserve its biodiversity. Overall, SECO will allow us to understand how the vegetation of the dry tropics is changing, and the implications of this for the global carbon cycle, the ecology of savannas and dry forests, and efforts to reduce climate change. The data we create, and the analyses we conduct will be useful to other researchers developing methods to monitor vegetation from satellites, and also to those who model the response of different ecosystems to climate and other changes. Forest managers, ecologists and development practitioners can use the data to understand which parts of the world's savannas and dry forests are changing most, and how these changes might be managed to avoid negative impacts that threaten biodiversity and the livelihoods of the 1 billion, mostly poor, rural people who live in this region.