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Cyber security is recognised as important at the highest levels of international government. President Obama has said that "the Cyber threat is one of the most serious economic and national security challenges [the US] face as a nation". Even the £650M in additional funding that accompanied the UK's Cyber Security Strategy is dwarfed by the >£10B estimated annual cost of cyber-crime to the UK economy. Additionally, we see links to "transnational organised crime" (cyber-crime is lucrative and widespread) as well as "Terrorism" (state-sponsored cyber-warfare is increasing) and "Ideologies and beliefs" (anti-establishment hacktivists, eg Anonymous, are also resorting to cyber-attack to express their views). Companies such as HP help organisations who are subjected to cyber attacks to protect their assets and information from such attacks. These cyber defence companies achieve this using a combination of hardware and software augmented with human effort. Allocating human effort to activity is critical since inappropriate allocation can result in human time being wasted or attacks going unchallenged. Time pressure, the presence of ambiguous information and the high stakes involved can then degrade the human judgement associated with this allocation process. Psychologists understand that such pressures degrade human decision making and similar issues have been found to exist in other domains. Indeed, Pearl Harbour and the Cuban Missile Crisis were each the result of failures in the intelligence process that can be traced back to human analysis errors educating decision making. Motivated by such experiences, in the 1970s, the CIA developed a technique, "Analysis of Competing Hypotheses" which encourages analysts and decision makers to avoid the pitfalls that can be associated with intelligence analysis. This technique involves consideration of multiple candidate explanations for what is being observed. The hypotheses are then assessed (and iteratively refined) using the observations to discriminate between likely and unlikely hypotheses. While the technique has proven its utility, for it to work effectively, it is important that the hypotheses considered include the "possible" not just the "probable" explanations. Unfortunately, "possible" and "probable" aren't precisely defined in this context. However, a recent advance in the statistics literature, "Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers", exhibits many of the same features as Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. Sequential Monte Carlo samplers are typically applied in contexts where a computer (not a person) generates the hypotheses and assesses them. However, just like Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, they consider a population of hypotheses, assessed against data and then iteratively used to spawn a new population of hypotheses. Crucially, the analogous concept to the notion of "possible" and "probable" hypotheses is both well defined and well understood. We propose to adapt Sequential Monte Carlo samplers to become part of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. We further propose to apply and demonstrate a tool embodying the technique in an operational cyber security context. If successful, this project would develop techniques that would ensure that decisions made in operational cyber security settings were well motivated. Where those decisions relate to the allocation of human analyst resources to activities, this would improve the efficiency of cyber security operations. The technology will position the UK at the forefront of the state-of-the-art in this high priority application domain.

The great majority of the CDT's research will fit into the four themes listed below, whether focussed upon application domains or on underpinning research challenges. These represent both notable application areas and emerging cyber security goals, and taken together cover some of the most pressing cyber security challenges our society faces today. 1. Security of 'Big Data' covers the acquisition, management, and exploitation of data in a wide variety of contexts. Security and privacy concerns often arise here - and may conflict with each other - together with issues for public policy and economic concerns. Not only must emerging security challenges be ad-dressed, new potential attack vectors arising from the volume and form of the data, such as enhanced risks of de-anonymisation, must be anticipated - having regard to major technical and design challenges. A major application area for this research is in medical re-search, as the formerly expected boundaries between public data, research, and clinical contexts crumble: in the handling of genomic data, autonomous data collection, and the co-management of personal health data. 2. Cyber-Physical Security considers the integration and interaction of digital and physical environments, and their emergent security properties; particularly relating to sensors, mobile devices, the internet of things, and smart power grids. In this way, we augment conventional security with physical information such as location and time, enabling novel security models. Applications arise in critical infrastructure monitoring, transportation, and assisted living. 3. Effective Systems Verification and Assurance. At its heart, this theme draws on Oxford's longstanding strength in formal methods for modelling and abstraction applied to hardware and software verification, proof of security, and protocol verification. It must al-so address issues in procurement and supply chain management, as well as criminology and malware analysis, high-assurance systems, and systems architectures. 4. Real-Time Security arises in both user-facing and network-facing tools. Continuous authentication, based on user behaviour, can be less intrusive and more effective than commonplace one-time authentication methods. Evolving access control allows decisions to be made based on past behaviour instead of a static policy. Effective use of visual analytics and machine learning can enhance these approaches, and apply to network security management, anomaly detection, and dynamic reconfiguration. These pieces con-tribute in various ways to an integrated goal of situational awareness. These themes link to many existing research strengths of the University, and extend their horizon into areas where technology is rapidly emerging and raising pressing cyber security concerns. The proposal has strong support from a broad sweep of relevant industry sectors, evidenced by letters of support attached from HP Labs, Sophos, Nokia, Barclays, Citrix, Intel, IBM, Microsoft UK, Lockheed Martin, Thales, and the Malvern Cyber Security Cluster of SMEs.

UK economic prosperity will increasingly depend on maintaining and further expanding a resilient and sustainable manufacturing sector based on sophisticated technologies, relevant knowledge and skill bases, and manufacturing infrastructure that has the ability to produce a high variety of complex products faster, better and cheaper. In high labour cost economies, manufacturing competitiveness will depend on maximising the utilisation of all available resources, empowering human intelligence and creativity, and capturing and capitalising on available information and knowledge for the total product lifecycle from design, through production, use and maintenance to recycling. It will also require an infrastructure that can quickly respond to consumer and producer requirements and minimise energy, transport, materials and resource usage while maximising environmental sustainability, safety and economic competitiveness. Building on the latest developments in Informatics, Computer Science, Operations Research, and Manufacturing Systems Science, we will address these needs with a research programme centred on the concept of 'Cloud Manufacturing', which has been defined as ''a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable manufacturing resources that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction''. The research will adopt the methods of cloud computing and crowdsourcing. The 'cloud' allows a range of data sources within design and manufacturing processes to be shared and mined to enable process optimisation and increase responsiveness; the crowds encompass manufacturing partners, designers, logistics partners, and consumers who are sources of potentially valuable data, information and product and process knowledge that can be elicited for optimising complex manufacturing environments. The approach admits new models for open innovation within the manufacturing space, enabling new enterprises to arise without a need for a large capital investment. The research programme is a radical departure from the current philosophy of manufacturing ICT - it will create a framework for participatory contribution of information from the actual manufacturing entities and support services to the consumers and users of products. This transformational approach presents theoretical, technical, practical, ethical and social challenges that we will meet through new fundamental multidisciplinary research. Whilst there have been some tentative steps taken to harness cloud concepts in manufacturing the theoretical methods, infrastructure and scientific knowledge needed to deliver the full potential of future cloud manufacturing have yet to be established. We aim to develop a holistic framework and understand its role within global manufacturing networks through: seeking the appropriate products, sectors, scales and volumes; identifying the impacted lifecycle stages from design to manufacture, maintenance and re-cycling; understanding how new product design and manufacturing will be influenced by lifecycle data; and finally analysing how future products will be influenced by cloud manufacturing enabling local on-demand supply of components and services. Cloud Manufacturing provides far reaching opportunities but has major research challenges including: understanding the diverse resource base, both in design collateral and production facilities; incorporating and integrating customer/user intelligence; and the representation and processing of information within a secure open service-oriented platform.

The current EngD Centre in Environmental Technology started in 1993 and was described in EPSRC's Review of the EngD Scheme in January 2007 as ...an excellent EngD Centre that should act as an exemplar to others . The new EngD Centre will build on this success with a related and expanded remit: to prepare engineers and scientists to meet the growing challenges in developing the UK towards sustainability in engineering and energy systems. The 5A rated (RAE 2001) Centre for Environmental Strategy (CES) is a unique, multidisciplinary research centre and alone in having the breadth and depth of expertise required to lead the new EngD Centre, with project and supervisory support from leading research groups across all Faculties at the University of Surrey. The success of the current EngD Centre has attracted an international reputation. Delegates from the US, Portugal, Switzerland and Sweden have attended EngD conferences in the past, to observe how the programme functions and the professional standards reached. The Surrey EngD Management Executive Committee are currently advising the MIT-Portugal programme (an initiative to involve MIT in refreshing post-graduate engineering education throughout Portugal) on how an industrially-based doctoral programme modelled on the current Surrey EngD could be introduced in Portugal.Demand across industrial, business and policy sectors for highly skilled personnel to address this transdisciplinary, internationally-important agenda is growing rapidly and major skills shortages have been identified. Our approach is to selectively recruit and develop graduates with excellent technical skills and with the breadth and flexibility to understand the complex environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability and to develop them to become effective agents of change in the transition to a sustainable economy. The EPSRC Review also recognised that a key strength in the current EngD is the high demand and repeat business from sponsoring companies : we have worked with 57 sponsoring organisations since 1993, with 30% returning to sponsor subsequent projects. Building on our experience in attracting, working with and retaining business, policy and industrial sponsors who are familiar with the Surrey EngD approach, we seek to augment the proposed intake of 50 EPSRC sponsored Research Engineers (REs) over five years, with a further 10 REs supported from University resources (an investment of 1M).The new Centre will retain the mission and approach of Surrey's existing EngD: taking a systems perspective and developing the professional graduates needed to drive and support progress towards sustainable delivery of goods and services. The demand for such trained personnel is illustrated by the increasing requirement for engineers and scientists to demonstrate competence in engineering for sustainability to achieve chartered status and throughout their continuing professional development. Increasing interest in carbon labelling and the requirement, shortly to be announced by the Carbon Trust, for accreditation in validating life cycle GHG emission calculations will increase further the demand for skilled professionals in this area. The key development for the new Centre is explicit recognition of the priorities for low carbon and sustainable energy operations and investments; our response is to develop and expand clusters of projects to meet the needs of our sponsor companies and the UK economy as a whole.End-user interest in sustainability and low carbon and energy systems is growing strongly, driven by multiple business and policy concerns. A continued and enlarged EngD Centre will allow us to go on working with companies, industrial sectors and policy makers to train the next generation of sustainability practitioners and leaders to respond to the challenge of creating and embedding sustainable practices across the UK.