Digital technologies have a crucial role to play in helping scientists and other key stakeholders to more deeply understand the natural environment and its complex web of interconnected ecosystems. This deeper understanding also supports the development of more grounded mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to environmental change. This fellowship will enable myself to establish a rich, cross-disciplinary research programme at Lancaster with the goal of carrying out world leading research in the role of digital technologies in deriving such strategies. The research programme is built on three key pillars: Digital innovation as an enabler. Technology is having a profound impact on the digital economy and many areas of society, but its role in managing environmental change is significantly under-developed. This programme will focus on three major (and complementary) areas of digital innovation, namely the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing and data science: IoT has the potential to provide rich, real-time data about many facets of the natural environment at a scale previously unimaginable; cloud computing offers elastic storage and computational capacity to bring together diverse data-sets from different geographical locations and at different scales and open this up to a range of stakeholders; data science provides an abundance of analysis techniques to then make sense of the data and hence to inform mitigation strategies and associated policies. Science as a conduit. Science has a crucial role in interpreting big data but, crucially, to achieve this, science must change. The programme will investigate how technology can support a paradigm shift in science towards an approach that: i) is more intrinsically open and collaborative through a philosophy of open data, as enabled by the cloud (e.g. including support for citizen science); ii) represents a more integrative, holistic science whereby different scientific disciplines work together, alongside social, data and computer scientists, to facilitate deeper and more meaningful data-driven understanding of ecosystems and their intrinsic complexities (again supported by cloud computing); iii) embraces complex systems thinking taking input from research on ecosystem services, complexity science and systems of systems approaches; iv) recognises the importance of uncertainty and seek technological solutions that help manage uncertainty in all its dimensions and support decision making in an uncertain and complex world. Impact as intrinsic. One major success of the Digital Economy programme was to develop a research community and set of approaches that emphasised stakeholder engagement and impact on society. This programme builds on this experience and adopts an experimental, agile and iterative methodology involving a close collaboration with a wide range of partners/stakeholders. This inherently participative approach is carefully designed to enable insights and breakthroughs in mitigation and adaptation strategies related to water/food/energy security, national infrastructure and biodiversity loss.

There is a compelling need for well-trained future UK leaders in, the rapidly growing, Offshore Wind (OSW) Energy sector, whose skills extend across boundaries of engineering and environmental sciences. The Aura CDT proposed here unites world-leading expertise and facilities in offshore wind (OSW) engineering and the environment via academic partnerships and links to industry knowledge of key real-world challenges. The CDT will build a unique PhD cohort programme that forges interdisciplinary collaboration between key UK academic institutions, and the major global industry players and will deliver an integrated research programme, tailored to the industry need, that maximises industrial and academic impact across the OSW sector. The most significant OSW industry cluster operates along the coast of north-east England, centred on the Humber Estuary, where Aura is based. The Humber 'Energy Estuary' is located at the centre of ~90% of all UK OSW projects currently in development. Recent estimates suggest that to meet national energy targets, developers need >4,000 offshore wind turbines, worth £120 billion, within 100 km of the Humber. Location, combined with existing infrastructure, has led the OSW industry to invest in the Humber at a transformative scale. This includes: (1) £315M investment by Siemens and ABP in an OSW turbine blade manufacturing plant, and logistics hub, at Greenport Hull, creating over 1,000 direct jobs; (2) £40M in infrastructure in Grimsby, part of a £6BN ongoing investment in the Humber, supporting Orsted, Eon, Centrica, Siemens-Gamesa and MHI Vestas; (3) The £450M Able Marine Energy Park, a bespoke port facility focused on the operations and maintenance of OSW; and (4) Significant growth in local and regional supply chain companies. The Aura cluster (www.aurawindenergy.com) has the critical mass needed to deliver a multidisciplinary CDT on OSW research and innovation, and train future OSW sector leaders effectively. It is led by the University of Hull, in collaboration with the Universities of Durham, Newcastle and Sheffield. Aura has already forged major collaborations between academia and industry (e.g. Siemens-Gamesa Renewable Energy and Orsted). Core members also include the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult (OREC) and the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), who respectively are the UK government bodies that directly support innovation in the OSW sector and the development of novel marine environment technology and science. The Aura CDT will develop future leaders with urgently needed skills that span Engineering (EPSRC) and Environmental (NERC) Sciences, whose research plays a key role in solving major OSW challenges. Our vision is to ensure the UK capitalises on a world-leading position in offshore wind energy. The CDT will involve 5 annual cohorts of at least 14 students, supported by EPSRC/NERC and the Universities of Hull, Durham, Newcastle and Sheffield, and by industry. In Year 1, the CDT provides students, recruited from disparate backgrounds, with a consistent foundation of learning in OSW and the Environment, after which they will be awarded a University of Hull PG Diploma in Wind Energy. The Hull PG Diploma consists of 6 x 20 credit modules. In Year 1, Trimester 1, three core modules, adapted from current Hull MSc courses and supported by academics across the partner-institutes, will cover: i) an introduction to OSW, with industry guest lectures; ii) a core skills module, in data analysis and visualization; and iii) an industry-directed group research project that utilises resources and supervisors across the Aura partner institutes and industry partners. In Year 1, Trimester 2, Aura students will specialise further in OSW via 3 modules chosen from >24 relevant Hull MSc level courses. This first year at Hull will be followed in Years 2-4 by a PhD by research at one of the partner institutions, together with a range of continued cohort development and training.

The past decade has seen significant developments in the approaches to assessing and managing flood risk. Throughout this period major research projects (such as the FREE, Floodsite, FRMRC, iCOASST, RASP) and industry driven innovations (particularly within the insurance sector, water companies and environmental consultants) have all contributed to these advances. As a result of these multiple (but largely independent) strands of innovation the UK has established a pre-eminent position in the science and practice of flood risk analysis and long term infrastructure investment planning. Programmes such as the National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and the Long Term Investment Strategy (LTIS) (undertaken by the Environment Agency) have built upon this knowledge and continue to represent leading international practice. LTIS is particularly noteworthy as the first national infrastructure investment strategy that is explicitly based on national flood risk analysis. Although the past decade has been powerful in driving innovations it has, understandably, led to a proliferation of techniques that are difficult for practitioners and researchers to access and build upon. Many users are now confused as to what is best practice, and the credibility of the results. Recent publications that question some of these results have been a legitimate challenge to complex environmental models. It is now timely to confirm, consolidate and disseminate the current state-of-art through concerted knowledge transfer (KT) and provide the platform for future advances and collaboration between business and academia. The concerted knowledge transfer proposed here will provide a significant contribution to: (i) enable stakeholders (both leading consultancies and infrastructure providers) to capitalize on existing risk analysis capabilities to target investments to build resilience; (ii) reinvigorate a wave of co-innovation within system risk analysis and investment planning; (iii) maintain UK's pre-eminence in the fields of natural hazard risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty, and (iv) strengthen the competitive advantage of UK-based consultants internationally. The FoRUM project: 1. Transfer knowledge and skills about flood risk analysis - We will consolidate the advances in recent years, including the approaches to the incorporation of infrastructure failure, spatial coherence with storm conditions and the interactions between channel and floodplain dynamics. We will explore the relationship between top-down and bottom-up models and opportunities for the strengths of one to be used to compensate for the weaknesses of the other. In doing so we will highlight recognized limitations and key uncertainties. 2. Transfer knowledge and understanding about investment planning under conditions of future change and regional/local implications - We will consolidate recent advances in investment planning and the approaches adopted at national and regional levels. We will compare and contrast the techniques developed through initiatives such as FRMRC and the Agency sponsored Adaptive Capacity project and long-term Investment studies with those underdevelopment in the Netherlands and within leading corporations (e.g. RAND, World Bank). We will help stakeholders access the latest thinking and techniques to support investment planning and set the approaches being adopted in the UK in the context of wider international practice. 3. Promote a better understanding of the credibility of national estimates of risk -Through the use of case studies, we compare and contrast risk estimates provided at national (through the National Flood Risk Assessment) with those provided at a more local levels (through best practice local analysis). This will enable us to explore the credibility of the analysis at different scales and the uncertainties that users should acknowledge.

National infrastructure (NI) systems (energy, transport, water, waste and ICT) in the UK and in advanced economies globally face serious challenges. The 2009 Council for Science and Technology (CST) report on NI in the UK identified significant vulnerabilities, capacity limitations and a number of NI components nearing the end of their useful life. It also highlighted serious fragmentation in the arrangements for infrastructure provision in the UK. There is an urgent need to reduce carbon emissions from infrastructure, to respond to future demographic, social and lifestyle changes and to build resilience to intensifying impacts of climate change. If this process of transforming NI is to take place efficiently, whilst also minimising the associated risks, it will need to be underpinned by a long-term, cross-sectoral approach to understanding NI performance under a range of possible futures. The 'systems of systems' analysis that must form the basis for such a strategic approach does not yet exist - this inter-disciplinary research programme will provide it.The aim of the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium is to develop and demonstrate a new generation of system simulation models and tools to inform analysis, planning and design of NI. The research will deal with energy, transport, water, waste and ICT systems at a national scale, developing new methods for analysing their performance, risks and interdependencies. It will provide a virtual environment in which we will test strategies for long term investment in NI and understand how alternative strategies perform with respect to policy constraints such as reliability and security of supply, cost, carbon emissions, and adaptability to demographic and climate change.The research programme is structured around four major challenges:1. How can infrastructure capacity and demand be balanced in an uncertain future? We will develop methods for modelling capacity, demand and interdependence in NI systems in a compatible way under a wide range of technological, socio-economic and climate futures. We will thereby provide the tools needed to identify robust strategies for sustainably balancing capacity and demand.2. What are the risks of infrastructure failure and how can we adapt NI to make it more resilient?We will analyse the risks of interdependent infrastructure failure by establishing network models of NI and analysing the consequences of failure for people and the economy. Information on key vulnerabilities and risks will be used to identify ways of adapting infrastructure systems to reduce risks in future.3. How do infrastructure systems evolve and interact with society and the economy? Starting with idealised simulations and working up to the national scale, we will develop new models of how infrastructure, society and the economy evolve in the long term. We will use the simulation models to demonstrate alternative long term futures for infrastructure provision and how they might be reached.4. What should the UK's strategy be for integrated provision of NI in the long term? Working with a remarkable group of project partners in government and industry, we will use our new methods to develop and test alternative strategies for Britain's NI, building an evidence-based case for a transition to sustainability. We will analyse the governance arrangements necessary to ensure that this transition is realisable in practice.A Programme Grant provides the opportunity to work flexibly with key partners in government and industry to address research challenges of national importance in a sustained way over five years. Our ambition is that through development of a new generation of tools, in concert with our government and industry partners, we will enable a revolution in the strategic analysis of NI provision in the UK, whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.

Accurate flow measurement in rivers is vital to build well calibrated, reliable simulation models able to predict accurately the timing and extent of floods, and also to provide the data needed for effective management of water resources in a river catchment. This project will develop a new method of acoustic wave holography to measure remotely the velocity, flow depth and bed characteristics within river channels. The proposed holography method records the pattern of reflected acoustic waves (the hologram) above a dynamic flow surface and uses this pattern to reconstruct the water surface wave field throughout a three-dimensional region of space. The project will use recent advances in computational fluid mechanics and turbulence theory. The underpinning concept is that the free surface of turbulent river flows is never flat and is always dynamically rough. There is overwhelming evidence that the 3-dimensional pattern of the free surface of a river flow is caused by the turbulence structures within the flow. These structures are generated at the river bed and rise to the free surface and express themselves in the form of a pattern of surface waves which propagate at a particular velocity which does not necessarily coincide with the mean surface water velocity. Therefore, the free surface wave pattern carries comprehensive information about the underlying hydrodynamic processes in the flow, including the flow velocity, depth, turbulence scale and intensity and bed roughness characteristics. This process is very complex and it has not been sufficiently studied in the past because of a lack of accurate and robust instruments and accurate fluid dynamics models to relate the free surface wave pattern to the flow structure beneath. Thus, there is now an opportunity to develop a clear understanding how the pattern observed on the free surface of a river flow and the underlying turbulence structures and bed surface roughness in fluvial environments interact. This new knowledge in the hydrodynamics of turbulent river flows combined with new acoustic holographic measurement capabilities will provide a paradigm shift in the accuracy, spatial resolution and speed of deployment of flow monitoring in rivers. In this respect, the proposed work has a very high degree of novelty in comparison to the broader research context of this area internationally. The proposal is timely because it will contribute significantly to the need for us to better understand our natural environment especially under extreme conditions and in the development of Robotics and Autonomous Sensor technologies. These technologies were outlined in a report by David Willetts as one of the "Eight Great Technologies" that should be promoted and developed by the UK. The Willetts' report also states a clear need for real time forecasting of rivers, better water resource management and autonomous surveillance vehicles which require accurate on-board sensing. Our project takes an important step towards providing technology to address these requirements. The new sensor technology will also enable new theoretical foundations to be developed in the areas of wave propagation, inverse problems, holography, signal processing and computational fluid dynamics.