Dealing with the consequences of weather related phenomena is an age-old problem. We have made great advances in predicting the weather, but we have made little progress in turning the outputs of these forecasts into actionable information that can help us manage their consequences. The winter storms of 2013/14 and 2014/15 demonstrated that our electrical distribution networks are not only vulnerable to strong winds, but their failure severely impacts on communities. This project will develop and test a new form of weather forecasting, which we term "consequence forecasts". These forecasts are essentially the same as traditional weather forecasts, however, they give a probabilistic assessment of the likely impacts and consequences of weather rather than just predicting the intensity of a weather variable. In this research will make forecasts of the number and location of electricity faults, provided via heat maps, and the number of customers without power. Keywords: wind storm, resilience, electricity infrastructure, natural hazard, consequence forecasts, weather forecasts Stakeholders: Western Power Distribution, National Grid, Energy Networks Association, Met Office, Electricity Consumers

Infrastructure systems, such as water, electrical and transport networks, form the backbone of a countries social, economic and environmental wellbeing and underpin the stable functioning of our modern communities. These systems are currently being subjected to a multitude of challenges - from a changing climate, to increasing population demands and economic austerity. The individual components of infrastructure systems (e.g. roads, bridges, reservoirs) are constructed to have long asset lives and existing components were not designed to cope with these ever increasing external pressures. As a consequence, the ability of our infrastructure systems to provide a basic quality and quantity of service after a severe weather event is being compromised. In the case of the winter 2013/14 storms, almost 1million households were cut off from electricity supplies and many we not reconnected for several days. We therefore require solutions to increase the resilience of our infrastructure systems and to minimise the disruption to our communities after a severe weather event. In many cases, current solutions to increase the resilience of infrastructure systems are based on an ad hoc procedure. This is mainly due to the current high levels of uncertainty regarding long-term climate projections, meaning that they cannot be reliably used as a basis for changing the design of future assets (e.g. through alteration of design codes), or to inform decisions to permanently alter current assets (e.g. through the construction of permanent flooding defences). Within this current "period of flux" we cannot simply do nothing, nor can we base decisions upon such uncertain models, we therefore require alternate more "adaptive" solutions to increase the resilience of our infrastructure. This research will develop a new generation of analysis and decision making tools required by engineers to identify how to locate, and when to deploy, resources to protect critical infrastructure during extreme weather events. Using this solution, a "baseline level" of service to our communities can be ensured, through either the protection of individual assets or through the provision of a temporary service, without the need of long-term climate scenarios to inform decisions.

The target of operating the GB system with net-zero carbon by 2025, alongside China's ambitious renewable of 35% of energy from renewable sources by 2030, are extremely challenging. From the recent UK power cut event (2019) , several other non-high profile (but still concerning) events that are known to the UK investigators, and the wide-scale blackouts caused by Typhoon Lekima in China, it is clear that new capabilities to manage extreme events and to maximise system resilience are needed urgently. Existing protection and control methods and practices have limitations, and presently islanded or city-centric operational modes are not permitted. The ambition of the project is to enable future urban energy systems, in island or multiple-island mode, with the capability of surviving in extreme conditions purely using local energy and storage resources without compromising system resilience or security of supply. The novelty of the project is in measurement and enhancement of resilience at an urban scale, and in fundamentally inverting operation, protection and control philosophies to enable migration from systems relying on centralised power stations and a national transmission system, to being capable of surviving purely with local sustainable sources, functioning in a proactive and co-ordinated approach. Key outputs of the project will be methods to audit, model and measure resilience of cities, and methods to determine and evaluate "threat levels" for future urban energy systems and their operation. Additionally, the project will develop control and protection strategies for operation in extreme conditions in islanded/sub-islanded modes, as well as develop enhanced restoration methods.

Energy networks are vitally important enablers for the UK energy sector and therefore UK industry and society. The energy trilemma (energy security, environmental impact and social cost) presents many complex interconnected challenges which reach beyond the UK and have huge relevance internationally. These challenges vary considerably from region to region, and change as a result of technology and society changes. Therefore, the planning, design and operation of energy networks needs to be revisited and optimised. Current energy networks research does not fully embrace a whole systems approach and is therefore not developing a deep enough understanding of the interconnected and interdependent nature of energy network infrastructure. The Supergen Energy Networks Hub will provide leadership, a core research programme and mechanisms/funding for the energy networks community to grow and come together to develop this deeper understanding and explore opportunities to shape energy networks which are fit for the future. The research component of the Hub's activities comprises an interconnected and complementary series of work packages. The work packages are: WP1: Understanding, Shaping and Challenging; WP2: Energy Network Infrastructure; WP3: ICT and Data; WP4: Policy and Society; WP5: Markets and Regulation; WP6: Risk and Uncertainty. WP1 incorporates a co-evolutionary approach and brings the other work packages together in a structured way. WP2 is the backbone of the research, dealing with the physical infrastructure in a multi vector manner from the outset. WP3 to WP6 deal with aspects of energy networks that cut across, and are equally valid, for all vectors and have the ability to integrate and modernise network infrastructures. All work packages will consider both planning and design as well as operational aspects. Experimental work and demonstrators will be essential to progress in energy networks research and the Hub will bring these facilities to bear through WP1. The Hub will engage with the energy networks communities throughout the research programme, to ensure that the work is informed by best practice and that the findings are widely visible and understood. The main objectives of the communication and engagement activities will be to ensure the energy networks academic community are connected and coherent, and that their work has a high profile and deep level of understanding in the relevant Industrial, Governmental and Societal communities both nationally and internationally. This will maximise the chances of high impact outcomes in the energy networks space as well as promoting energy networks as an exciting and dynamic area to carry out research, thus attracting the brightest minds to get involved. Communication and engagement activities will be a constant feature of the Hub and will be particularly energetic during the first twelve months in order to rapidly establish a brand, and an open and supportive culture within the relevant communities. Engagement activities will as far as possible be carried out in conjunction with other key organisations in the energy space, to maximise the value of the engagement activities. The Hub aims to become a beacon for equality, diversity and inclusion. Our mission is to enhance equality of opportunity and create a positive, flourishing, safe and inclusive environment for everyone associated with the Hub, from staff, students, Advisory Board members and general Hub representation (at conferences, workshops and reviews). We recognise the need and the challenges to support early career researchers, and improve the balance of protected characteristics across the entire Hub community, such as race or ethnicity, gender reassignment, disability, sex, sexual orientation, age, religion or belief, pregnancy or maternity status, marital status or socio-economic background.

Energy systems are vitally important to the future of UK industry and society. However, the energy trilemma presents many complex interconnected challenges. Current integrated energy systems modelling and simulation techniques suffer from a series of shortcomings that undermine their ability to develop and inform improved policy and planning decisions, therefore preventing the UK realising huge potential benefits. The current approach is characterised by high level static models which produce answers or predictions that are highly subject to a set of critical simplifying assumptions and therefore cannot be relied upon with a high degree of confidence. They are unable to provide sufficiently accurate or detailed, integrated representations of the physics, engineering, social, spatial temporal or stochastic aspects of real energy systems. They also struggle to generate robust long term plans in the face of uncertainties in commercial and technological developments and the effects of climate change, behavioural dynamics and technological interdependencies. The aim of the Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI) is to address this weakness and reduce the risks associated with securing and delivering a fully integrated future energy system for the UK. This will be achieved through the development of a radically different, holistic modelling, simulation and optimisation methodology which makes use of existing high level tools from academic, industry and government networks and couples them with detailed models validated using full scale multi vector demonstration systems. CESI will carry out uncertainty quantification to identify the robust messages which the models are providing about the real world, and to identify where effort on improving models should be focused in order to maximise learning about the real world. This approach, and the associated models and data, will be made available to the energy community and will provide a rigorous underpinning for current integrated energy systems research, so that future energy system planning and policy formulation can be carried out with a greater degree of confidence than is currently possible. CESI is a unique partnership of five research intensive universities and underpinning strategic partner Siemens (contribution value of £7.1m to the centre) The Universities of Newcastle, Durham, Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt and Sussex have a combined RCUK energy portfolio worth over £100m. The centre will have a physical base as Newcastle University which will release space for the centre in the new £60m Urban Sciences Building. This building will contain world-class facilities from which to lead international research into digitally enabled urban sustainability and will also be physically connected to a full scale instrumented multi vector energy system. The building will feature an Urban Observatory, which will collect a diverse set of data from across the city, and a 3D Decision Theatre which will enable real-time data to be analysed, explored and the enable the testing of hypotheses. The main aim of CESI's work is to develop a modular 'plug-n-play' environment in which components of the energy system can be co-simulated and optimised in detail. With no technology considered in isolation, considering sectors as an interlinked whole, the interactions and rebound effects across technologies and users can be examined. The methodology proposed is a system architect concept underpinned by a twin track approach of detailed multi-vector, integrated simulation and optimisation at various scales incorporating uncertainty, coupled with large scale demonstration and experimental facilities in order to test, validate and evaluate solutions and scenarios. A System Architect takes a fully integrated, balanced, long term, transparent approach to energy system planning unfettered by silos and short term thinking.