We propose a new phase of the successful Mathematics for Real-World Systems (MathSys) Centre for Doctoral Training that will address the call priority area "Mathematical and Computational Modelling". Advanced quantitative skills and applied mathematical modelling are critical to address the contemporary challenges arising from biomedicine and health sectors, modern industry and the digital economy. The UK Commission for Employment and Skills as well as Tech City UK have identified that a skills shortage in this domain is one of the key challenges facing the UK technology sector: there is a severe lack of trained researchers with the technical skills and, importantly, the ability to translate these skills into effective solutions in collaboration with end-users. Our proposal addresses this need with a cross-disciplinary, cohort-based training programme that will equip the next generation of researchers with cutting-edge methodological toolkits and the experience of external end-user engagement to address a broad variety of real-world problems in fields ranging from mathematical biology to the high-tech sector. Our MSc training (and continued PhD development) will deliver a core of mathematical techniques relevant to all applied modelling, but will also focus on two cross-cutting methodological themes which we consider key to complex multi-scale systems prediction: modelling across spatial and temporal scales; and hybrid modelling integrating complex data and mechanistic models. These themes pervade many areas of active research and will shape mathematical and computational modelling for the coming decades. A core element of the CDT will be productive and impactful engagement with end-users throughout the teaching and research phases. This has been a distinguishing feature of the MathSys CDT and is further expanded in our new proposal. MSc Research Study Groups provide an ideal opportunity for MSc students to experience working in a collaborative environment and for our end-users to become actively involved. All PhD projects are expected to be co-supervised by an external partner, bringing knowledge, data and experience to the modelling of real-world problems; students will normally be expected to spend 2-4 weeks (or longer) with these end-users to better understand the case-specific challenges and motivate their research. The potential renewal of the MathSys CDT has provided us with the opportunity to expand our portfolio of external partners focusing on research challenges in four application areas: Quantitative biomedical research, (A2) Mathematical epidemiology, (A3) Socio-technical systems and (A4) Advanced modelling and optimization of industrial processes. We will retain the one-year MSc followed by three-year PhD format that has been successfully refined through staff experience and student feedback over more than a decade of previous Warwick doctoral training centres. However, both the training and research components of the programme will be thoroughly updated to reflect the evolving technical landscape of applied research and the changing priorities of end-users. At the same time, we have retained the flexibility that allows co-creation of activities with our end-users and allows us to respond to changes in the national and international research environments on an ongoing yearly basis. Students will share a dedicated space, with a lecture theatre and common area based in one of the UK's leading mathematical departments. The space is physically connected to the new Mathematical Sciences building, at the interface of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, and provides a unique location for our interdisciplinary activities.

There are a number of factors about the UK military which could put them at a greater risk of physical health problems and mortality than the general population. There are very high levels of alcohol use and drinking is an accepted part of military culture. In addition, military personnel are more likely to experience stressful events than the general population, particularly during deployment. Many of these stressful events have previously been found to be associated with mental health problems. The King's Centre for Military Health Research (KCMHR) cohort study was set up to look at a representative sample of UK military personnel, and collected data on mental health, alcohol use and deployment experiences. The study found that 13% of the military are abusing alcohol at a level which is hazardous to their health and overall, levels of alcohol use are much higher than the general population at all ages. Research findings from the general population have shown that both alcohol use and mental health problems are associated with poorer physical health outcomes. Therefore, it is predicted that current and future healthcare use for physical conditions will be high in the UK military population. Identifying the future healthcare needs of military personnel and veterans is a current priority for the UK government. However, the current datasets that are available to look at use of healthcare services (and the reasons why) do not identify whether or not an individual is in the military. The proposed study will be able to identify military personnel in existing NHS datasets for England, Wales and Scotland that include secondary healthcare records, by linking to the KCMHR cohort data. In NHS hospitals, data is recorded each time someone is admitted to hospital as an inpatient, or has an outpatient visit or visits an accident and emergency department. The reason for the hospital visit is coded using an existing international classification of disease and health related problems (ICD-10). This data is collated from all hospitals and is called Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) in England. In this study, English, Scottish and Welsh data will be linked with the KCMHR cohort study, providing information on approximately 10,000 military personnel. This will offer a unique opportunity to study the health of UK military personnel and will provide data on the health problems for which they most commonly seek help. We will be able to identify whether physical health conditions or accidents and injuries are most common. A further aim for the study will be to look at whether we can predict if an individual is likely to be admitted to, or visit hospital, for a physical health condition or an accident or injury, by using the information from the KCMHR cohort about how much alcohol they drink and whether they have a mental health problem. We will also be able to look at the costs to the NHS resulting from high levels of alcohol use and mental health problems within the military. It is a high social, health and political priority to identify the future health care needs of the UK military (serving and ex serving), so that the NHS commissioning board have the data they need in order to plan specialised commissioning of health care services. It is also very important to find out more information about the links between alcohol use, mental health problems and physical ill-health in military personnel. This is so we can identify which military personnel are most at risk of having poorer physical health in the future and also so that there is evidence that existing policies regarding the use of alcohol within military settings may need to be changed.

The Centre for Care is a collaboration between the universities of Sheffield, Birmingham, Kent and Oxford, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the Office for National Statistics, Carers UK, the National Children's Bureau and the Social Care Institute for Excellence. Working with care sector partners and leading international teams, it addresses the urgent need for new, accessible evidence on care. Arrangements for care, and people who need or provide care, are under unprecedented pressure. Quality, cost, unmet need and the situation of carers and care workers are central concerns. Care interacts with other systems in the NHS, jobs market and in policy on migration, welfare and housing. The cultures, values and public policies that determine eligibility for support and funding rules are also crucial, and 'shocks' like Covid-19 have profound and multiple effects. Together, these factors have led to fragmented care provision and unfair outcomes, and the need for reform is now widely accepted. The Centre for Care provides new evidence and thinking for policymakers, care sector organisations and for people who need or provide care. Its objectives are to: - work with people who need care, carers, care workers and others to produce studies that improve understanding of care and promote wellbeing; - publish robust findings on care systems, on paid and unpaid care, and on diversity, inequalities and sustainability in care; - exploit existing data and develop new studies, producing findings that policymakers and other researchers can use; - work with PhD students and emerging scholars, establishing a new generation of care specialists; - stimulate and inform public discussion of care and translate research into practice; and - collaborate with other care research teams, within and beyond the UK. In studying care, we focus on support, services and protections to promote the wellbeing of vulnerable or disabled people of all ages, and the networks, communities and systems that affect them. Our work will generate new knowledge on three major topics: 'Care trajectories and constraints: requiring, receiving and giving care' explores experiences of care at different life stages and as people transition between different parts of the care system. It also studies how giving or receiving care is affected when families are geographically dispersed. 'Inequalities in care: consequences, planning and place' uses latest statistical and data linkage techniques to learn how socio-economic, health and other inequalities shape experience of care, and the consequences of these for groups and individuals in different places and over time. 'Care workforce change: organisation, delivery and development' focuses on care worker recruitment and conditions; regulation and organisation of care work, including the introduction of new technologies; and efforts to improve job and service quality in care. Cross-cutting these studies, the Centre will also examine 'Care as a complex, adaptive ecosystem', 'Digital care' and Care data infrastructure', supporting the integration of all our research. This helps us develop new thinking on care inequalities, how care ecosystems operate and change, and the drivers and implications of digitalisation and other developments. It also enables us to exploit the UK's finest statistical datasets to produce compelling new insights on care and caring. Our multidisciplinary research team builds on a strong portfolio of care studies and is supported by researchers in nine other countries, all equally passionate about doing impactful research that can drive positive change in experience of care and caring. Our work is undertaken in partnership with care sector organisations and groups advocating on behalf of people who need care, carers and care workers. The Centre for Care is vibrant, innovative, and determined to make a positive difference through impactful, accessible research for all to use.

Cigarette smoking and harmful use of alcohol are major preventable causes of early death, disease, accidents and injury in the UK. Although the health effects of smoking have been widely recognised for decades, active and passive smoking still kill over 100,000 people and cause over 160,000 new cases of illness in children each year. Half of the 10 million smokers in the UK today will be killed by their smoking unless they stop. In contrast to smoking, alcohol consumption in the UK has increased markedly in the last thirty years. Ten million people in the UK now drink alcohol to harmful levels, and alcohol causes over 15,000 deaths, 1 million hospital admissions, and accidents and violence that together cost our society more than £20 billion each year. Like the effects of smoking, these harms affect the poorest in society most. Also like tobacco, alcohol consumption is driven by very powerful multinational industries with substantial political influence. It is therefore essential to find better ways to prevent smoking and harmful use of alcohol, now and in the future, and to prevent commercial interests from undermining these actions. Much has been learnt from the successes of reducing smoking prevalence, and many successful tobacco strategies can be applied to prevent alcohol harm. However, alcohol strategies must also take account of the fact that while smoking is dangerous at all levels, low levels of alcohol consumption do not have equivalent health harms to tobacco. So while tobacco policy can be pursued with the aim of eradicating smoking from society, alcohol policy has to aim to prevent consumption to levels that cause significant harm to the user, or to others. This proposal aims to address these problems by bringing together leading tobacco and alcohol researchers to build on success in tobacco research over the past five years by creating a new research centre, the UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies (UKCTAS), to study new ways to prevent tobacco and alcohol-related harm, and promote their implementation. Since 2008 we have applied this approach in smoking prevention through the existing UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies (UKCTCS), and achieved significant impacts on tobacco policy and practice (see www.ukctcs.org). We now propose to continue our tobacco work and to establish a major new focus on alcohol, by incorporating leading international alcohol researchers into the new Centre. Our work will aim to: 1. Understand and identify preventable reasons why people smoke or use alcohol to a harmful degree, and improve understanding of the health impacts of these behaviours 2. Understand and develop better population measures to to reduce smoking and harmful use of alcohol 3. Develop and implement better individual health interventions to prevent smoking and harmful use of alcohol 4. Develop and apply harm reduction strategies for those otherwise likely to continue to smoke or sustain harm from alcohol 5. Understand the tactics of the industry to encourage tobacco and alcohol consumption and thus undermine health policy and practice 6. Use the outcomes of our research to work, with other professional and public groups and individuals, to improve UK and international action to prevent smoking and harm from alcohol We will also aim to further develop our training and development of academic, policymaker and practitioner capacity for tobacco and alcohol work in the future, and to establish UKCTAS as a self sustaining Centre by the end of the five-year funding period. The main benefits of the Centre will be the achievement of sustained reductions in harms to individuals and society from tobacco and alcohol use.

The Quo VaDis project applies the latest techniques for large-scale computer-aided linguistic analysis to discussions about vaccinations in public discourse, and specifically in: social media discussions in English, UK Parliamentary debates and UK national press reports. The goal is to arrive at a better understanding of pro- and anti-vaccination views, as well as undecided views, which will inform future public health campaigns. The project will be based in the world-renowned ESRC Centre for Corpus Approaches to Social Science (CASS) at Lancaster University, which was awarded a Queen's Anniversary Prize for Higher and Further Education in 2015. An interdisciplinary project team will work in interaction with three main project partners: Public Health England, the Department of Health and Social Care and the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport. The World Health Organization's (WHO) list of top ten global health threats includes 'vaccine hesitancy' - 'a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability of vaccination services'. Vaccination programmes are currently estimated to prevent between 2 and 3 million deaths a year worldwide. However, uptake of vaccinations in 90% of countries has been reported to be affected by vaccine hesitancy. In England, coverage for all routine childhood vaccinations is in decline, resulting in the resurgence of communicable diseases that had previously been eradicated. In August 2019, the UK lost its WHO measles elimination status. The reasons for vaccine hesitancy are complex, but they need to be understood in order to be addressed effectively. This project focuses on discourse because the ways in which controversial topics such as vaccinations are talked about both reflect and shape beliefs and attitudes, which may in turn influence behaviour. More specifically, vaccinations have been the topic of UK parliamentary debates since before the first Vaccination Act of 1840; they have been increasingly discussed in the UK press since the early 1990s; and anti-vaccination views in particular have been described as part of a complex network of 'anti-public discourses' which, in recent years, are known to be both spread and contested on social media. This project will involve the analysis of three multi-million-word datasets: (1) English-language contributions to three social media platforms: Mumsnet, Reddit and Twitter since the inception of each platform - respectively, 2000, 2005 and 2006; (2) UK national newspapers since 1990; and (3) UK parliamentary debates since 1830. These datasets will be analysed in a data-driven fashion by means of the computer-aided methods associated with Corpus Linguistics - a branch of Linguistics that involves the construction of large digital collections of naturally-occurring texts (known as 'corpora') and their analysis through tailor-made software. A corpus linguistic approach makes it possible to combine in a principled way the quantitative analysis of corpora containing millions of words with the qualitative analysis of individual texts, patterns and interactions. In this way, we will identify and investigate the different ways in which views about vaccinations are expressed in our data, for example, through patterns in choices of vocabulary, pronouns, negation, evaluation, metaphors, narratives, sources of evidence, and argumentation. We will reveal both differences and similarities in pro- and anti-vaccination views over time and across different groups of people, particularly as they form and interact on social media. Our findings will make a major contribution to an understanding of views about vaccinations both in the UK (via our parliamentary and news datasets) and internationally (via our social media datasets). Through the involvement of our Project Partners, as well as more general engagement activities, these findings will be used as evidence for the design of future public health campaigns about vaccinations.