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[Proposal EE112/ K1396905] Predicting the impacts of global change on rural communities is increasingly challenging due to the accelerating pace of climate change and social and economic development. The combined demands of ensuring food, energy and water security have been described as a "Perfect Storm" by Prof Sir John Beddington, HM Government's Chief Scientific adviser. It is clear that food security will continue to remain a critical issue in developing countries due to the unpredictable nature of food chains and the effects of climate change. Food security in poor rural communities often relies significantly on flows of ecosystem services from 'natural' environments. For millennia mankind has engaged in thinking and learning experiences which have shaped the processes underpinning the production of food and the management of land, addressing multiple factors and tradeoffs. However, many food production systems require intensive management and are prone to failure outside of the range of their optimal environmental conditions. Concerns are growing about the ability of current agricultural systems to support rising human populations without further degrading critical ecosystem services (such as water provisioning, pollination). During extreme events, such as drought, or other shocks or crises (environmental, social or economic), the dependence of rural communities on ecosystem services to meet their nutritional and livelihood needs often increases. This highlights the importance of minimising the impacts of agricultural systems on ecosystems and the services they provide. Strategies for coping with food insecurity may, in turn, have an impact on the capacity of ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services as the spatial and temporal nature of feedbacks between socio-economic and ecological systems can be complex. Addressing the sustainability of natural resource management and rural livelihoods requires integrated thinking across disciplines. The complex transformations which can, or have already occurred from natural forest to managed landscapes must be fully understood so that systems can be adopted which promote sustainable transformations and/or can mitigate any negative impacts. This proposal therefore brings together expertise in social sciences, economics, ecology, risk management, spatial planning, climate change and complexity sciences to design and integrate a suite of models and methods to analyse how dynamic stocks and flows of ecosystem services translate to local-level food security and nutritional health. The study will examine the multiple (and multi-directional) links between ecosystem services, food security and maternal and child health outcomes in poor rural communities, addressing three main themes: 1. Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security, nutritional health and ecosystem services; 2. Crises and tipping points: Past, present and future interactions between food insecurity and ecosystem services at the forest-agricultural interface; 3. The science-policy interface: How can we manage ecosystem services to reduce food insecurity and increase nutritional health? Analysis of household and intra-household nutritional status and assessment and mapping of ecosystem services at the relevant spatial scales will be conducted in sites in Colombia and Malawi, which are characterised by mosaics of forests and agricultural lands, to explore the trade-offs and tipping points associated with managing these dynamic landscapes under climate and socio-economic change. Powerful new models will predict how ecosystem services will be changed by drivers and pressures for human wellbeing and food security. This will allow risk management/mitigation models and strategies to be developed which can inform national and regional policy in order to maintain ecosystems and support human wellbeing.

Human activities are directly and indirectly depleting the World's natural resources. At the same time, we rely on these resources for our livelihoods and well-being. Urgent action is thus needed to better manage our impact on the natural world. A key factor driving these negative impacts is that the decisions that people, businesses and governments make tend to be based on a limited set of nature's values that tend to be linked to economic markets. In biodiversity economics, these values are called 'instrumental' values: the predominantly monetary benefits of goods and services people obtain from nature. However, the global assessment on the value of nature has identified several other 'non-instrumental' value concepts, which include: relational values (the value we have for our relationships with nature); transcendental values (our overarching principles and life goals); shared values (collective values that expressed by groups, communities and cultures); and intrinsic values (values for nature independent of human welfare). NAVIGATE aims to enhance our understanding of these non-instrumental value concepts and explore how these values might be better integrated into economic thinking and policy decisions. Our research will undertake detailed reviews of the 'non-instrumental' value concepts. We will draw on a range of scientific perspectives to provide greater clarity on definitions of these value concepts, how they might be measured (using both monetary and other indicators) and how they might best be integrated into policy and business decisions. We will also ask decision makers whether they currently consider these values, and if not, how they think they could incorporate them. Based on the above, we will develop methods for assessing these values and feeding them into policies. To test our ideas, we will apply our methods to four case studies that will value the non-instrumental values associated with forests and woodlands. Our case studies include: the UK national forest; a new woodland that has recently been planted in Wales to store carbon, reduce flooding and promote outdoor recreation; urban woodland in the City of Helsinki, Finland; and conservation woodlands in Tanzania that provide timber products to the UK market. With the help of local stakeholders and policy makers, we will explore options to feed our findings relating to the value of our case study forests / woodland into actual policy decisions, through a range of existing and new approaches, such as cost-benefit analysis, natural capital accounting and deliberative democratic valuations. Conventional economic measures tend to only consider the instrumental values of nature, but it has been argued that better decisions could be made for our planet if the policies also account for a wider range of values including non-instrumental values, expressed in both monetary and non-monetary terms. The outputs from our research will include: a series of scientific papers and policy guidance documents for embedding non-instrumental values into decisions. We will also produce a video and infographics to explain the implications of our research to the public.