Weather generators are tools that simulate realistic sequences of climate patterns based on statistical methods incorporating randomness. This means that they can be described as "stochastic", i.e. they can generate a wide range of possible patterns (or realisations) of precipitation, temperature and other variables in space and time. This is a very useful capability, given that weather is highly variable and we need to be prepared for different sequences and types of extreme events. Weather generators are a vital tool for building climate resilience, as they bridge the gap between climate models and applications. Climate models are slow to run, such that only a limited number of realisations of future climates are available, especially when using high resolution models. Weather generators are much faster and so offer a means of better sampling climate variability and extremes, while also downscaling model projections to locally relevant scales. However, it is difficult for practitioners to make the best use of weather generators in many real-world projects, such as assessments of changing flood risks. Substantial issues remain in the acceptance, usability, flexibility, performance and functionality of weather generators, despite their advanced capabilities. In addition, there are no standardised tools for incorporating state-of-the-art UK climate model projections (UKCP18) into weather generator simulations. This project will therefore seek to facilitate wider use of weather generators in climate resilience applications. By working with industry-leading experts at JBA Consulting, the project will develop open software tools to expedite the setup, application and analysis of a leading weather generator, including in future scenarios based on cutting-edge UKCP18 projections. Evaluation, scoping and prototyping exercises in a live case study project of the Thames basin will improve understanding of tool limitations and identify potential improvements, while also facilitating knowledge exchange across sectors. Project workshops involving a range of external participants will enhance impact and dissemination amongst the wider UK climate resilience community.

The forecasting of marine weather, waves and tidal currents using models and in-situ measurements is vital for offshore operations and maintenance (O&M) in the marine infrastructure and marine renewable energy (MRE) sectors. Offshore O&M is limited by strict wave height thresholds at the offshore point of operations (typically 1.5m) and with the UK set to spend £2bn per annum by 2025 on O&M for the offshore wind industry alone the prediction of viable working windows for O&M is critical. In the tidal stream MRE sector the combined forces of waves and tidal currents on underwater tidal turbines can lead to dangerously high physical and electrical loads placed on equipment and infrastructure. Poor knowledge, and thus prediction of the local variability in weather, wave and tide conditions result in conservative thresholds for MRE operations. This, in turn, reduces the time MRE devices are in operation (and therefore energy generation), increasing investor risk and harming the financial development of the MRE sector as a whole. Existing wave and current monitoring and forecasting technologies rely on expensive in-situ measurements of the marine environment (e.g., floating wave buoys and devices on the sea bed) and models driven by these measurements or other large-scale simulations. Although very precise, the project partners have identified traditional wave and current monitoring techniques to be inadequate in terms of spatial coverage, timeliness and accuracy in complicated, high-energy coastal environments. These environments have previously proven to be difficult for wave and current observation and validation due to high equipment costs and risks of failure. As such there is a paucity of reliable, large-scale measurements of waves and currents in these high-energy marine environments. Marine navigational radar ('X-band') is a mature technology for the remote sensing of the marine environment, capable of generating estimates of tidal current speed, ocean wave parameters and water depths over wide areas. However the current state-of-the-art in X-band radar oceanography has been found lacking in the high-energy, dynamic and complicated coastal environments that marine energy projects are operating. This project aims to develop a step-change in the way we process radar data to generate measurements of the marine environment, paving the way for a system that can produce the environmental information the marine industry requires. NOC has a 20 year history at the forefront of marine radar oceanography and is well-placed to deliver this much needed development. To achieve this aim an open-source wave model will be integrated with the NOC's tried-and-tested radar analysis toolbox to produce a hybrid model/observation system. This system will combine modelled and observed wave information in such a way that minimises the errors in both; effectively generating a 'most likely' wave measurement over wider area every 10-15 minutes in near-real-time. The system will be developed using radar data and validated using ground-truth data recorded at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) on Orkney; the world's largest and most successful MRE test facility. Once validated, the system will then be demonstrated in a real-world setting at the OpenHydro test platform at EMEC. This project includes researchers with expertise radar oceanography, marine observation and the numerical modelling of the marine environment. Our project partners include EMEC, the marine energy company OpenHydro and JBA consulting; a company at the cutting-edge of operational forecasting. This new and innovative environmental monitoring system will be developed with the guidance of our partners and the successful system used to supply the basis for high-impact solutions for the partners and their clients.

The forecasting of marine weather, waves and tidal currents using models and in-situ measurements is vital for offshore operations and maintenance (O&M) in the marine infrastructure and marine renewable energy (MRE) sectors. Offshore O&M is limited by strict wave height thresholds at the offshore point of operations (typically 1.5m) and with the UK set to spend £2bn per annum by 2025 on O&M for the offshore wind industry alone the prediction of viable working windows for O&M is critical. In the tidal stream MRE sector the combined forces of waves and tidal currents on underwater tidal turbines can lead to dangerously high physical and electrical loads placed on equipment and infrastructure. Poor knowledge, and thus prediction of the local variability in weather, wave and tide conditions result in conservative thresholds for MRE operations. This, in turn, reduces the time MRE devices are in operation (and therefore energy generation), increasing investor risk and harming the financial development of the MRE sector as a whole. Existing wave and current monitoring and forecasting technologies rely on expensive in-situ measurements of the marine environment (e.g., floating wave buoys and devices on the sea bed) and models driven by these measurements or other large-scale simulations. Although very precise, the project partners have identified traditional wave and current monitoring techniques to be inadequate in terms of spatial coverage, timeliness and accuracy in complicated, high-energy coastal environments. These environments have previously proven to be difficult for wave and current observation and validation due to high equipment costs and risks of failure. As such there is a paucity of reliable, large-scale measurements of waves and currents in these high-energy marine environments. Marine navigational radar ('X-band') is a mature technology for the remote sensing of the marine environment, capable of generating estimates of tidal current speed, ocean wave parameters and water depths over wide areas. However the current state-of-the-art in X-band radar oceanography has been found lacking in the high-energy, dynamic and complicated coastal environments that marine energy projects are operating. This project aims to develop a step-change in the way we process radar data to generate measurements of the marine environment, paving the way for a system that can produce the environmental information the marine industry requires. NOC has a 20 year history at the forefront of marine radar oceanography and is well-placed to deliver this much needed development. To achieve this aim an open-source wave model will be integrated with the NOC's tried-and-tested radar analysis toolbox to produce a hybrid model/observation system. This system will combine modelled and observed wave information in such a way that minimises the errors in both; effectively generating a 'most likely' wave measurement over wider area every 10-15 minutes in near-real-time. The system will be developed using radar data and validated using ground-truth data recorded at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) on Orkney; the world's largest and most successful MRE test facility. Once validated, the system will then be demonstrated in a real-world setting at the OpenHydro test platform at EMEC. This project includes researchers with expertise radar oceanography, marine observation and the numerical modelling of the marine environment. Our project partners include EMEC, the marine energy company OpenHydro and JBA consulting; a company at the cutting-edge of operational forecasting. This new and innovative environmental monitoring system will be developed with the guidance of our partners and the successful system used to supply the basis for high-impact solutions for the partners and their clients.

A Catchment Change Network is proposed that will enable the exchange of knowledge, people, skills and expertise between the NERC research base and its science user community. The initial focus will be to understand and manage uncertainty and risk related to water scarcity, flood risk and diffuse pollution management. However, it is intended that the network will evolve to consider other topics and become self-sustaining beyond the lifetime of the NERC investment. The initial activities, for which NERC funding is sought, will take the form of three complementary Focus Areas with Focus Area Teams comprised of two lead researchers and two core science users, designed to allow the exchange of NERC knowledge in a form of benefit to a much broader range of science users. The activities will include workshops and training for industry and the private sector, focussed special publications, representing Guides to Good Practice, and annual conferences developed by the Focus Area Teams. The network will be supported by a dedicated web site and an expert facilitator who will nurture the relationship between scientists and science users with the final aim to build sufficient capacity to create a new and self-sustainable platform for learning and new collaborative research opportunities. The context - Capacity to handle uncertainty and risk. The science of the natural environment is an uncertain science. Practitioners cannot make predictions for real problems without significant uncertainty in representing the processes involved. In catchment management, this inherent uncertainty is exacerbated by the additional complexities of future climate change, societal change and technical innovation. These are all difficult to anticipate or quantify and suggest a need for an adaptive approach to management with a science need driven by existing and emerging legislation. The EU Water Framework Directive, for example, poses a number of key questions for catchment scientists: Will improvements in effluents and diffuse sources change stream ecology in predictable ways? Will climate change have a greater effect than land use change on sustainability of use? Similarly, the EU Floods Directive poses questions in which management of uncertainty is essential, e.g. how can we estimate for the '100 or 1000 year flood' given limited available data? Such questions require an integrated approach to catchment management - 'from cloud to coast'. Good investment decisions for infrastructure and policy instruments require methodologies that recognise the intrinsic uncertainty in the predictions of different types of change so that robust, adaptive, management priorities can be determined. Much decision making is based on best estimates of future scenarios, without adequate account of the significant uncertainties in such estimates. Methods for taking account of uncertainties do exist and might change decisions made. The proposed Catchment Change Network (CCN) will exchange knowledge of how to handle uncertainties in integrated catchment management, with an initial focus on decision making in planning for adaptation and mitigation in flood risk, water scarcity, and diffusive pollution. The CCN will draw together a core of NERC scientists and science users to deliver user defined requirements for economic and social benefit, whilst also involving a wider science user and NERC audience. The major aim of the network will be to integrate modern uncertainty estimation methods linking risk and uncertainty with a move towards adaptive management at the catchment scale.

The need for a network of doctoral engineers with interdisciplinary skills: The UK leads the world in research, innovation, development, demonstration & deployment in wave and tidal technologies. It has 35% & 50% of European wave and tidal current energy potential respectively, and 13% of the shallow-water offshore wind potential. Existing offshore wind technologies could be used to meet 15% of UK electricity demand, with significantly greater potential available in deeper waters for new innovative technologies. The 2017 Digest of UK Energy Statistics shows that wind energy capacity is 16GW (with 5.3GW offshore). The UK has a greater installed capacity of tidal current technologies and has demonstrated a greater number of wave technologies than the rest of the world put together. UK and European offshore wind capacity is expected to increase, respectively by 1 and 2.5 GW/year until 2030. Bloomberg New Energy Finance have projected 115GW of global installed offshore energy capacity by 2030. Cambridge Econometrics have identified that to drive even just this UK development, by 2032, offshore wind would alone need to grow human capacity in the sector to around 60,000 FTE jobs in the UK, with 14,000 directly employed in managerial and professional engineering and scientific roles. The challenges to define and develop the necessary technologies and know-how for the ORE sector are defined by the interaction and inter-dependence of: impact on the natural environment; its energy resources; the emergence of new innovative technologies; manufacture, deployment, operation and maintenance at scale; micro- and macro-economic appraisal; regulation & policy; social & environmental acceptance. Prior experience in IDCORE and Supergen UKCMER, recent roadmaps, and advice from industrial partners show that we must train a connected network of scientists and engineers with deep use-inspired research & innovation skills in their individual domains, and an appreciation of the challenges and state of the art solutions across the breadth of the sector. The approach that will be taken: We propose to establish a new centre, building on the strengths of the successful Industrial Doctoral Centre for Offshore Renewable Energy and Supergen UKCMER. To exploit synergy, opportunities for scale & additional impact, this proposal is made in partnership by the Universities of Edinburgh, Exeter and Strathclyde and the Scottish Association for Marine Sceince. Together we will deliver and operate a fully integrated CDT forming a best-with-best partnership to create future leaders for the British energy systems and to train them to fully integrate offshore renewables into the decarbonised energy systems of the future. Specifically, the new IDCORE CDT will * Graduate 50 new postgraduate students, supervised by a cohort of over 80 academic staff in the UK. * Use world-class UKRI funded facilities to provide cutting-edge training in engineering, science & inter-disciplinary areas; * Deliver impact from excellent research in integrated cross-disciplinary themes from the ocean to the end user; * Train research students throughout the full life cycle of research, spanning theory to practice, including engineering, physical, data & natural science, economics, management, leadership & social-science skills. Overview of the research areas of the centre: Experience, assisted by our industrial partners, has defined the need for research, training and innovation in the following areas: natural resource; environmental impact assessment (and mitigation); development of offshore energy technologies; new materials and science for components, sub-systems and devices in the offshore environment; data science; autonomous inspection and condition monitoring; remote and local operation and maintenance; energy conversion, conditioning, storage and delivery; energy economics, policy and regulation. IDCORE provides this.