Biodiversity policy is increasingly influenced by evidence about the role of biodiversity in the provision of ecosystem services. However, the current state of scientific knowledge and empirical evidence is inconclusive and does not provide a sufficiently robust basis to make definite statements about whether securing the provision of specific ecosystem services will also guarantee biodiversity conservation, and vice versa. Conserving land for biodiversity purposes is often beneficial for some ecosystem services but at the expense of other ecosystem services. This is especially the case in many European landscapes where human activities have since long shaped biodiversity and landscapes. There is a need to improve and integrate existing research methods from different natural and social science disciplines for the analysis of potential synergies, conflicts and associated tradeoffs in support of effective policy and management. The objectives of CONNECT are twofold. First, to scientifically investigate the relationship between biodiversity, ecosystem service provision and socio-economic values in European landscapes. Secondly, to effectively translate and embed the scientific research findings in the existing biodiversity and ecosystem services policy community and public debate. The main outcomes are: 1) an empirically tested decision-support framework for analysis of synergies and tradeoffs between biodiversity, ecosystem services and associated socio-economic benefits, and 2) practical guidelines for the design of effective conservation policies based on improved scientific understanding of the relationship between ecosystem services and biodiversity. Drawing upon cutting-edge scientific biodiversity research, CONNECT will examine which dimensions of taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity contribute to ecosystem functioning and hence to ecosystem service provision. Assessment of synergies and tradeoffs between biodiversity and ecosystem services conservation will be based on improved spatial modelling and mapping procedures and socio-economic valuation methods that are grounded in a better understanding of the complex interaction between ecosystem functioning and societal demand for ecosystem services. Improved theoretical and empirical insights will be translated into generic understanding that can support the development and implementation of policy instruments aimed at biodiversity conservation and the sustainable provision of ecosystem services. Synergies and tradeoffs between ecosystem services and biodiversity will be explored in regional scale case studies and in an EU wide assessment in the context of NATURA2000 and High-Nature Value farmlands. Case studies will include an interactive stakeholder process to reveal the role of current policies. The effectiveness of alternative strategies and policies to conserve biodiversity will be assessed while accounting for the tradeoffs and synergies between biodiversity and ecosystem services. Best-practice guidelines for more effective integrated biodiversity and ecosystem services policy and decision-making will be provided grounded in the identified synergies between biodiversity and ecosystem services, while avoiding tradeoffs and policy strategies that lead to perverse incentives. The results and their implications for biodiversity governance will be discussed during a policy workshop and contributed to science-policy networks such as TEEB and IPBES.

It is crucial to overcome structural and strategic counterforces that hinder effective climate policy and system transitions. The KIN working group "Which opposing forces hinder the climate transition?" brings together misinformation experts, climate obstruction researchers, policymakers, NGOs, creative professionals, journalists, and other relevant actors to develop projects that address specific forms of climate obstruction. Our initial activities include organizing training sessions for journalists and a briefing for Members of Parliament, with a specific focus on climate misinformation. How do you recognize misinformation, and how can you ensure that you do not unintentionally spread or amplify misinformation?

When river and coastal floods occur at the same time, their impacts for the people and societies in coastal regions and river deltas can be huge. This research project shows the potential impact of these “compound flood events” at the global scale and evaluates various measures for risk that they bring.

-

Extreme heat waves and heavy rainfall are increasing in intensity on a global scale, trends which will continue with future global warming. Summer, with most biological and agricultural production, is probably the season when changes in extremes will have the most-severe impacts on humanity. Summer extremes are particularly devastating when they persist for several days: Many consecutive hot-and-dry days causing harvest failure, or stagnating wet extremes causing flooding. Despite this importance, persistence of extreme summer weather has largely been neglected by the climate science community. What maintains stagnating summer weather? Do climate models capture persistence and the underlying processes accurately? What is the role of global warming? Persistence is linked to sea-surface temperature, soil moisture and atmospheric circulation which are expected to change with future warming but the uncertainties are large. The proposed research fills this knowledge gap. I will study mid-latitude summer circulation and its influence on weather persistence focusing on the most high-impact, persistent summer extremes. The project innovatively combines novel methods from disciplines which historically evolved largely independently: (1) Machine learning guided by physical theory and (2) climate modeling experiments using state-of-the-art global Numerical Weather Prediction models. I will quantify persistence of summer extremes and their local and remote drivers in past, present and future climates, focusing on Western Europe and eastern U.S., i.e. two major population centers critical for global food production. In recent publications, I have reported a pronounced weakening of boreal summer circulation since 1979 and hypothesized that this leads to more-persistent, and therefore more-extreme, summer weather conditions. This overarching hypothesis will be tested, using the described methods, in observations and modeled data at different warming levels. This work will reduce societal risks from future summer extremes by improving existing forecasts and developing novel early warning systems based upon optimal empirical prediction methods.