This project is designed to develop a framework and associated tools to explicitly identify trade-offs between ecosystem services and between the wellbeing of different stakeholders resulting from policy and development scenarios and environmental change. We will achieve this by combining modelling and participatory processes to represent interactions and responses of social-ecological systems, and applying the developed framework to the coastal environment of Kenya through a series of expert and stakeholder workshops. Ecosystem services (ES) have become popular for understanding linkages between human needs and ecosystems, yet their use in practical application to problems of development and sustainability, and poverty alleviation in particular, have been limited by various challenges. These challenges often stem from the inability for ES frameworks to take account of the complexity and interactions inherent in social-ecological systems. It limits our understanding on how ES will ultimately translate into poverty alleviation. Particularly, we know that ES benefits depends not only on institutions and markets, but also on capital, knowledge, expertise, technology and labour - something that poor groups often lack. Also, we know that it is important to understand the inter-linkages between different aspects of well-being. These have serious implications for the effectiveness of using ES approach for poverty alleviation in the face of trade-offs of ES benefits to different groups. There is a need for ES frameworks that account for trade-offs under the complexity of social-ecological systems with explicitly representation of poor groups. This project will develop a novel framework to combine modelling and participatory processes to understand, document and deliberate on trade-offs between ES benefits to the wellbeing of different user groups in complex social-ecological systems. We will test the framework in a case study of coastal environment of Kenya. We will develop quantitative and semi-quantitative models to explore the impacts of scenarios on ES and wellbeing of particular groups. Linkages in the social-ecological system will be modelled based on quantitative and qualitative knowledge about the interactions and responses between the social and ecological components. Interspersed with model development and data collation, we propose to conduct five workshops in East Africa with scientists, managers and stakeholders to: develop conceptual and methodological tools, plan scenarios, obtain model parameters, conduct multi-criteria analysis, and reflect and disseminate results. Workshops will be closely facilitated towards specific objectives. The methods, experiences and learning will be disseminated amongst scientists, and policy makers to support the ESPA programme. The proposed project will provide a framework to study trade-offs in ecosystem services and facilitate the discussion of sharing of costs and benefits between users groups and in designing policy options. Particularly, the approach will help increase the recognition of the poor-group in policy discussion related to ecosystem services, and thus contribute to developing policies that alleviate poverty.

The emergence of the viral disease, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) across Asia and Africa, affecting some of the poorest and most challenged human communities on earth, demands urgent action to mitigate its immediate and ongoing insidious impacts on domestic and wild ruminants. PPR is a very severe disease of sheep and goats that is very common in East Africa causing high mortality of up to 100%, and loss of milk and meat. It threatens the food security and livelihoods of pastoralists and small-holder farmers. It also threatens wildlife resources, as die-off of rare and endangered wild caprines in Asia has shown. Over the past few years there has been much discussion at international and national levels about the control and possible eradication of PPR, and in early 2015 a global PPR eradication programme was launched. Since the emergence of PPR in Kenya and Tanzania in 2006-2008, there have been several vaccination campaigns to limit its impact on livestock keepers but outbreaks continue to occur, and lack of effective surveillance means that it is unclear how and where the virus is persisting. Vaccination is usually applied in response to outbreaks if funds are available, which helps to reduce livestock keepers' immediate losses due to the disease, but low levels of vaccination coverage could be contributing to virus persistence. A more pragmatic but research-driven approach is needed to halt PPR virus persistence and spread in East Africa, as well as in infected and at-risk areas of Africa, Asia and Europe. The project aims to study the wildlife and livestock populations in the Greater Serengeti ecosystem, how they interact with each other, and how the interaction of multiple susceptible species might contribute to persistence of PPR infection making disease control more challenging in a multi-host compared to a single host system. Based on our previous studies we know that some common wildlife species can be infected with PPR virus, such as buffalo, wildebeest, gazelles and others. We do not know whether they are becoming infected by contact with sheep and goats, or whether the virus is circulating independently among wildlife. The project will map the livestock and wildlife populations, their numbers, how they move and the type of contact between wildlife and livestock. It will measure the level of PPR infection in the wildlife by conducting a blood-sampling survey to test for PPR antibodies. It will measure the frequency of disease outbreaks in sheep and goat flocks as reported by farmers and through interviews with farmers and flock visits, in sites with different levels and patterns of livestock-wildlife contact. Putting all this information together, we will be able to plan the best way to carry out PPR vaccination in the sheep and goat population to eliminate infection in a short period of time, and the best way to carry out surveillance in both small stock and wildlife to monitor PPR infection and disease. The project will be carried out by researchers from the Royal Veterinary College, University College London and CIRAD, France, working together with Kenyan and Tanzanian veterinary services, researchers and wildlife authorities and local institutions, and the local livestock keeping communities. The valuable information gained from this study will be the first step towards eliminating PPR from this ecosystem and the lessons learned will be applicable in other parts of Africa and Asia. In addition to the new knowledge gained, reducing the impact of diseases like PPR will allow farmers, particularly women, in these areas to be more productive, to improve their food security and livelihoods. This comes at a critical time of transition to other livelihoods, with simmering tensions around land use, agriculture and biodiversity conservation, and the increasing effects of climate change and drought. Better disease control will allow people to be more resilient during this socio-economic transition.