Within the FutureMARES project, Deltares will use a 3D model representing the water levels and flows, as well as water quality and ecology in the North Sea to predict the effects of large-scale cultivation of seaweed and mussels and native flat oyster restoration. This will be done for different future scenarios of combined socio-economic and climate changes, up to 2100. The results will help evaluating if these activities are viable in such contexts, what their effects will be on the North Sea ecology and if/how they can help adapting to- or mitigating climate change.

Fossil fuel use, land use change and cement production have perturbed the global carbon cycle and have led to the accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This has two major consequences, namely global warming and ocean acidification (?the other CO2 problem?). Sea surface water pH has decreased already by 0.1 unit since pre-industrial time, and based on atmospheric CO2 scenarios, it is projected to further decline by 0.0015-0.002 unit per year over the coming century. However, observations on the Washington coast and in the North Sea (Rijkswaterstaat monitoring) show stronger decreases of 0.045 and 0.02 unit per year, respectively. The North Sea is apparently acidifying 10 times faster than global ocean model predictions. Here we propose a detailed investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of pH in the North Sea at a basin-wide scale using the high quality methodology in use by the international CO2 research community. This will generate the needed data to see whether the acidification of the North Sea is indeed occurring at such high pace. In addition, we will also elucidate the biogeochemical mechanisms governing the pH in North Sea waters, in particular the balance between production and respiration and the generation of alkalinity. As part of this investigation, we will apply a recently developed modelling technique to attribute pH changes to changing environmental parameters.

An integrated flood risk modelling framework was developed to determine how climate change and sea level rise will influence typhoon flood risk in Shanghai, and resulting damages to residents, businesses, and industries, as well as to investigate the effect of proposed infrastructure and adaptation measures on the reduction of this flood risk. The team found that flood risk increases in general due to sea level rise, while the geographic location of heaviest flood risk moves northward as typhoon tracks shift. This leads to a shift in risk distribution between domestic vs. foreign-owned businesses due to their geographic settings.

CONNEXION identifies and addresses critical connections between water management and human health in the Inkomati-Usuthu water management area (South Africa). We combine disease and water-energy-food (WEF) interaction models to better understand these connections. We visualise results in a dashboard for decision making, supporting WEF and health managers in their policy and daily practice. Our consortium includes a broad team of researchers and practitioners in WEF, nutrition, and infectious diseases, who will work together with various local stakeholders to co-create potential scenarios and recommendations. CONNEXION will contribute to improved resilience, community livelihoods, health, and wellbeing in the research area and beyond.