The continental shelf seas provide a transistion zone between estuaries and the ocean across which carbon, nutrients, sediments and contaminants are exchanged. Whilst the currents and mixing on the continental shelf are dominated by the tide interacting with the sea bed, significant levels of biological primary production occurs in regions that stratify during the summer months. The exchange of nutrients and carbon across these critical interfaces of stratified fluid is poorly understood and is also underrepresented in numerical models. The current proposal aims to exploit state-of-the-art computer modelling and analysis tools in the investigation and quantification of the physical mechanisms and processes responsible for the fluxes across this critical interface. In particular the focus will be on understanding the interaction between mixed layer turbulence and wind-driven inertial oscillations in the tidally-strong shelf sea environment. The hypothesis is that these interactions at the thermocline will exceed a critical shear threshold leading to catastrophic loss of stability and episodic mixing. Parameterisations for this mixing will be developed. The potential impact on the shelf sea ecosystem will then be investigated by looking at the nutrient flux into the seasonal thermocline.

The proposed project “Readiness of ICOS for Necessities of integrated Global Observations” (RINGO) aims to further development of ICOS RI and ICOS ERIC and foster its sustainability. The challenges are to further develop the readiness of ICOS RI along five principal objectives: 1. Scientific readiness. To support the further consolidation of the observational networks and enhance their quality. This objective is mainly science-guided and will increase the readiness of ICOS RI to be the European pillar in a global observation system on greenhouse gases. 2. Geographical readiness. To enhance ICOS membership and sustainability by supporting interested countries to build a national consortium, to promote ICOS towards the national stakeholders, to receive consultancy e.g. on possibilities to use EU structural fund to build the infrastructure for ICOS observations and also to receive training to improve the readiness of the scientists to work inside ICOS. 3. Technological readiness. To further develop and standardize technologies for greenhouse gas observations necessary to foster new knowledge demands and to account for and contribute to technological advances. 4. Data readiness. To improve data streams towards different user groups, adapting to the developing and dynamic (web) standards. 5. Political and administrative readiness. To deepen the global cooperation of observational infrastructures and with that the common societal impact. Impact is expected on the further development and sustainability of ICOS via scientific, technical and managerial progress and by deepening the integration into global observation and data integration systems.

This project will engage with two project partners (Environment Agency and EDF energy) with significant assets and infrastructure at risk from extreme storm surges. For both partners this project will deliver understanding of the impacts of plausible extreme coastal surge and wave events on the function, resilience, design and standard of protection of key infrastructure. It will provide them and other Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Authorities with an improved level of understanding around current and future standards of protection. For key coastal regions - determined with our partners - we will synthesise a number of "black swan" storm surges - events that have not been observed but that are physically plausible. This has never previously been done for extra-tropical weather systems. It is important to sample storminess beyond the observed range of natural variability since our record of severe storm surges is probably too short (we have only had two extreme North Sea storm surges in 60 years - in 1953 and 2013). We will do this by analysing and grouping European storm systems from reanalysis data, and then perturbing the atmospheric systems using a well tried and tested forecasting tool (made available to us by the Met Office). The modified wind and pressure fields will drive coupled storm surge and wave models to create the plausible worst cases. Our work will provide a credible alternative for worst case storm surges that complements the H++ scenarios obtained from climate models alone. The results of the project will assist our project partners and other stakeholders in planning and mitigation, the siting and protection of coastal infrastructure, and long term investment decisions. Our deliverables will take the form of: 2-D data fields for storm surges and waves along the affected regions (determined with the partners); new calculations of extreme value statistics for those regions; site-by-site analyses of tide/surge/wave combinations that then feed into the downstream modelling of the two partners. For the Environment Agency, the new data would feed into National and / or local flood risk and forecasting models to help understand what impacts would be associated with such events to inform investment decisions and incident preparedness. The outputs would also be used both to quality control the current best-practice statistical methods for estimation of extreme sea levels and extend those. For EDF Energy, the new data will feed into their current statistical methodology for estimating return levels of extreme sea levels and provide information that could be used in strategic decisions on probable maximum extremes and lower bounds on the 10,000-year level for different natural hazards.

This project will aid the commercialisation of recent inventions of oceanographic / environmental sensor technology developed in collaboration by the National Oceanography Centre Southampton and the University of Southampton. They have developed novel miniaturised high performance sensors that measure the conductivity, temperature and oxygen content of water. The measurement of these parameters is essential in a wide range of environmental studies in both fresh and salt (sea) water. The small size and high performance of these new sensors suggests that they could be developed into a product with potential benefits to both science and industry. Prior to this project the inventors have commissioned a market survey and this has highlighted sizeable markets in a number of sectors. Crucially the potential customers include non scientists in sectors where potential sales volumes are large. This project seeks to investigate these commercial opportunities further and complete adaptation and testing of the technology to allow it to be demonstrated to key user groups and companies. The project will also explore business models, partnerships, patenting, and routes to manufacture.

Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides, and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide offshore Norway covers an area larger than Scotland and contains enough sediment to cover all of Scotland to a depth of 80 m. This huge slide occurred 8,200 years ago and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with a run up >20 m around the Norwegian Sea and 3-8 m on the Scottish mainland. The UK faces few other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat of the Storegga Slide tsunami. The Storegga Slide is not the only huge submarine slide in the Norwegian Sea. Published data suggest that there have been at least six such slides in the last 20,000 years. For instance, the Traenadjupet Slide occurred 4,000 years ago and involved ~900 km3 of sediment. Based on a recurrence interval of 4,000 years (2 events in the last 8,000 years, or 6 events in 20,000 years), there is a 5% probability of a major submarine slide, and possible tsunami, occurring in the next 200 years. Sedimentary deposits in Shetland dated at 1500 and 5500 years, in addition to the 8200 year Storegga deposit, are thought to indicate tsunami impacts and provide evidence that the Arctic tsunami hazard is still poorly understood. Given the potential impact of tsunamis generated by Arctic landslides, we need a rigorous assessment of the hazard they pose to the UK over the next 100-200 years, their potential cost to society, degree to which existing sea defences protect the UK, and how tsunami hazards could be incorporated into multi-hazard flood risk management. This project is timely because rapid climatic change in the Arctic could increase the risk posed by landslide-tsunamis. Crustal rebound associated with future ice melting may produce larger and more frequent earthquakes, such as probably triggered the Storegga Slide 8200 years ago. The Arctic is also predicted to undergo particularly rapid warming in the next few decades that could lead to dissociation of gas hydrates (ice-like compounds of methane and water) in marine sediments, weakening the sediment and potentially increasing the landsliding risk. Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs. This forms a work flow that starts with observations of past landslides and evolves through modelling of their consequences to predicting and costing the consequences of potential future landslides and associated tsunamis. Particular attention will be paid to societal impacts and mitigation strategies, including examination of the effectiveness of current sea defences. This will be achieved through engagement of stakeholders from the start of the project, including government agencies that manage UK flood risk, international bodies responsible for tsunami warning systems, and the re-insurance sector. The main deliverables will be: (i) better understanding of frequency of past Arctic landslides and resulting tsunami impact on the UK (ii) improved models for submarine landslides and associated tsunamis that help to understand why certain landslides cause tsunamis, and others don't. (iii) a single modelling strategy that starts with a coupled landslide-tsunami source, tracks propagation of the tsunami across the Norwegian Sea, and ends with inundation of the UK coast. Tsunami sources of various sizes and origins will be tested (iv) a detailed evaluation of the consequences and societal cost to the UK of tsunami flooding , including the effectiveness of existing flood defences (v) an assessment of how climate change may alter landslide frequency and thus tsunami risk to the UK.