The need to approach climate action, resource efficiency, and circularity performance as integrated, economy-wide, cross-cutting issues is growingly gaining attention in the policy world, stimulating the development of new industrial policies in Europe and worldwide. Currently, however, there is little progress in conceptualising the circular economy and understanding its interactions with climate action. State-of-the-art modelling capacity to capture the interplay of the two agendas and their implications for energy-intensive sectors as well as to represent the European industrys transformation in line with the regions vision for climate neutrality is not yet fully developed. TRANSIENCE will undertake a comprehensive characterisation and assessment of circularity principles and measures vis--vis decarbonisation, by looking at the twin transition of European industries through the lenses of global competitiveness, innovation, and holistic sustainability. It will then produce MIC3, a consistent, fully open-source model ecosystem to assess industrial circularity, decarbonisation, and sustainability. A series of interoperable modules on the socioeconomic, service and product, material, industrial, energy-system, and environmental perspectives of the transformation of European industry will be developed and integrated, building on and opening the code of leading modelling tools. MIC3 will finally be used in extensive scenario modelling to produce diverse pathways toward a material-efficient, circular, climate-neutral, sustainable European industry. Transparency, openness, and knowledge sharing will be promoted, and technical capacities will be developed in four industrial agglomerations in the EU, moving beyond stakeholder consultation, onto model co-development, continuous validation of assumptions, co-creation of scenario modelling, evaluation of the desirability and usability of the developed model and insights, and eventually co-production of science and action.

OCEAN:ICE will assess the impacts of key Antarctic Ice Sheet and Southern Ocean processes on Planet Earth, via their influence on sea level rise, deep water formation, ocean circulation and climate. An innovative and ambitious combination of observations and numerical models, including coupled ice sheet-climate model development, will be used to improve predictions of how changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets impact global climate. It will make new circumpolar and Atlantic observations in observational gaps. It will assimilate these and existing data into improved ice sheet boundary conditions and forcing, producing new estimates of ice sheet melt and impacts on ocean circulation, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation. It will develop, calibrate and assess models used to predict the future evolution of the giant ice sheets. It will reduce the deep uncertainty in the impact of their melt on societally relevant environmental changes on decadal to multi-centennial time scales. OCEAN:ICE will assess the potential for passing ice sheet 'tipping points' and their consequences for ocean circulation and climate. OCEAN:ICE will raise the profile of European research through its extensive network of international collaborators, who provide scientific and logistical support. It will directly contribute to the All-Atlantic Ocean Research Alliance through observations, logistical collaboration and analysis. It will significantly advance the state-of-the-art in coupled ice sheet-climate modelling and directly contribute to international climate assessments such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and World Ocean Assessment. It will link organically to European data centres to disseminate its data, following FAIR and INSPIRE principles. It will deliver improved assessments of European climate impacts from the melting ice sheets, with actionable risk and timescales, to policymakers and the public.

Globally, there is increased concern of the potential impacts of extreme climate events and their impact on loss and damage of people, assets and property as a result of these events. Therefore, natural partners in using climate services to assess risk are the Global Insurance Sector, who are key implementers in increasing societies resilience and recovery of extreme events and who are integral, co-design partners in this programme. This project intends to operationalize a system, called the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, that combines climate services with damage and loss information and provides a standardised risk assessment process that can assess potential losses, areas at most risk and quantify financial losses of modelled scenarios. We intend to prove the Oasis LMF system through undertaking a range of demonstrators linked and co-designed to ‘real’ situations and end-user communities in the insurance, municipalities and business sectors (see list of partners & collaborators). These demonstrators have already been agreed with our end-users and develop work around hydro-climatic risk (in the Danube Region), Typhoon Risk, African Farmer Risk – through using climate information to support the underwriting of micro-insurance, climate v health and climate v forest asset risk assessment. We also intend to further expand access by all sectors to the models, tools and services developed within this programme and the broader climate services sector by operationalizing an open eMarket place and matchmaking facility for catastrophe and climate data and models, tools and services and through broadening awareness in the climate modelling and end-users communities to the Framework, and the transparent and comparable standard it offers to support evidence based risk assessment and adaptation planning.

The ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement goals has led to the realization that a rapid and full decarbonization of the economy is required, involving a structural transition of the current economy and society. With the rise of quantified policy targets, policy packages, and consideration of multiple dimensions and sectors, Integrated Assessment Models with their ability to consider complex relationships and provide calibrated numerical results have become ever more important in the last decade. The PRISMA project aims to bring these models to the next level by focusing on four key areas of improvement, namely the representation of distributional justice and efficiency, innovation and finance, climate impacts and land-use implications, and lifestyle change and circularity. In these four key areas we will improve existing large-scale IAMs and sectorial models, and consider the linking of different models where applicable. Two cross-cutting shared themes across these areas are the improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis, and the representation of disruptive and structural change in the economy. Notably we will increase the spatial granularity with a focus on Europe, and look at the yearly and in particular near term detailed modeling of rapid decarbonization pathways. The extensive model development will be co-designed through an interactive stakeholder engagement process from the beginning, and focus on model openness and usability to ensure the stakeholder and policy relevance. Moreover, PRISMA will focus in its application on the analysis of the spectrum of Fit for 55 package policies of the EU developing focalized robust and resilient Net zero pathways and assess the uncertainty around key variables and outcomes. PRISMA will also provide key insights to international climate assessments, a large number of open modelling tools and databases, including capacity building and dissemination activities for all countries.