The effectiveness of flood-risk management in The Netherlands depends on effective stakeholder coordination through governance arrangements developed over many years of coping with floods. In this research project, we will repeat this process on a shortened time scale, and aim to develop coordinating capabilities in flood-risk management for the urban poor in a developing country. We will initiate and support community-based innovation, development, production, and implementation of small-scale technical innovations that alleviate immediate flood-related nuisance (wet feet) in a town in Bangladesh, with the aim to increase coordinating capacity for flood risk management and focus this emerging governance capacity on developing ever longer term, severer risks, increasing scale and more sustainable solution for flood risk management. Our research in this Learning Space addresses a major knowledge gap on how community based flood mitigation and adaptation measures both technological and institutional develop into measures of scale. This will enhance flood resiliency through demonstration and subsequent development of knowledge co-creation in collaboration with local partners and ultimately integration in flood management policies.

While great strides have been made in treating early stages of cancer, life expectancy of patients with metastatic cancer has remained about the same in the past decades. In our recent research we showed through the game-theoretical framework, that the Standard of Care (SoC) in metastatic cancers promotes the evolution of therapy-induced resistance and leads to subsequent treatment failure. As an alternative, we proposed the so-called evolutionary therapy, based on combination of evolutionary and Stackelberg (or leader-follower) game theory. This therapy foresees and steers resistance mechanisms in cancer cells so that the patient quality of life and time to disease progression can be both increased. Recent clinical trials show success of very simple evolutionary therapies in terms of both these criteria. However, the evolutionary therapy design is still in its infancy, as the underlying game-theoretical framework with a rational (Stackelberg) leader and followers driven by natural selection (playing evolutionary game) is not well explored and its properties, such as under what conditions the Stackelberg equilibrium is stable and can actually be reached, are therefore not well understood yet. In this proposal, we will develop the missing theory for the games with a rational leader and followers playing evolutionary game among each other, which we term Stackelberg evolutionary games. This theory will lead to a much more sophisticated design of evolutionary therapies. In our proposal, we will (i) analyze mathematics of eco-evolutionary cancer response to the physician’s treatment choices, both in terms of evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) and transient dynamics leading to these strategies ; (ii) determine for which initial conditions and treatment strategies of cancer various objectives of the leader (such as treating to cure vs. treating to contain) can be achieved, and analyze the sensitivity of these objectives to small deviations in the cancer dynamics; (iii) develop the methodology for calculating the treatment strategies and implement those numerically for ongoing clinical trials (evolutionary treatment of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer and metastatic thyroid cancer) and laboratory experiments (involving MDA-MB-231/luc triple-negative and MCF7 estrogen receptor-positive breast cancers). These methods will be implemented algorithmically and will be organized in a publicly available software toolbox, including model predictive control algorithms for adjusting treatment strategies during clinical trials, based on new measurements. The theory that we will develop supports a paradigm shift in the treatment of metastatic cancers, by replacing the maximum tolerable dose treatment with more dynamic, adaptive treatment strategies based on game theory and dynamical systems theory.

Ninety percent of raw materials used in the EU chemical industry are from fossil resources. A future industrial system that is independent of fossil resources will require the use of alternative raw materials (ARM), such as CO2 or biomass, for the production of chemical and materials (transmaterialization). Industrial clusters are, however, complex systems with many and increasingly intertwined processes between and within firms. Strong interdependences in multi-process/multi-firm industrial systems are a barrier for transmaterialization as interventions in any single process can affect other processes (possibly operated by other firms), both at the local scale of an industrial cluster and in the supply chains involved (which are geographically dispersed). We lack knowledge of the potential impact of transmaterializing processes that are embedded in symbiotic industrial networks and value chains. Without this knowledge, transmaterialization efforts can unintentionally result in industrial systems that are more complex, less resource efficient, and produce more emissions. In this VICI, I will develop a conceptual framework that combines, for the first time, transmaterialization and industrial symbiosis. The framework considers ARM-based technologies as invasive species aiming to replace fossil-based technologies (native species) in existing symbiotic industrial systems. It adapts and operationalizes concepts derived from invasion ecology for application in industrial systems. This novel approach allows to a) compare specific characteristics of industrial systems and ARM-based technologies; b) assess the resource, energy and costs impacts of transmaterializing multiple and interconnected value chains; c) integrate impacts at the local cluster level and at the system level, and d) explore which transmaterialization strategies and ARM-based technologies result in the larger gains. The framework will be applied to a simplified model based on the Dutch Pernis/Moerdijk petrochemical cluster. This VICI will generate conceptual and empirical knowledge urgently needed to design transmaterialization pathways towards fossil-free industrial sectors

Energy is important in supporting economic development. For the rapidly growing economy of Indonesia, a reliable and sustainable energy supply is crucial. This is in line with Indonesian energy policy which requires 25% of electricity to be obtained from new renewable energy sources by the year 2025. Bali, Indonesia’s gateway for tourism, and Kalimantan, the proposed location of Indonesia’s new capital, need a clean and reliable energy supply. The objective of this project is to develop a strategic energy implementation plan for Bali and Kalimantan which ensures regional economic growth for both regions and minimizes carbon dioxide emissions. The research is organised in 9 work packages most of which are executed in cooperation between Indonesian and Netherlands’ partners. Key elements are: 1) mapping of renewable energy resources in this region. The focus will be on the development of small hydropower and sustainable bio-energy resources, combined with land restoration. Also, other renewable energy resources, including wind, solar and ocean energy will be considered. 2) design of energy systems for this region with increasing shares of renewable resources. The entire energy system, including energy demand development, demand side management, conversion, transportation, storage and production will be included. Special focus is on the development of reliable energy supply chains and power systems. 3) strategy and policy development in co-creation with all the relevant stakeholders. Part of this is a policy impact analysis and an extended stakeholder engagement process. The implementation plan and pathway will reduce CO2 emissions and ensure regional economic development and resource trading beneficial to both regions.

In 2017, for the first time, renewables generated 30% of Europes electricity. Addressing the temporal mismatch between supply and demand of renewable energy sources with inherent intermittency is crucial for achieving larger electricity penetration of non-dispatchable renewables. CO2 electrochemical conversion has the potential to contribute to Europe’s energy transition (i) by storing energy when surplus power is available (power-to-X-to-power – PtXP) or (ii) by peak shaving energy to produce chemicals, materials or fuels (power-to-X – PtX). Moreover, this second option allows decreasing the need for fossil fuel as feedstock in the industrial sector. The successful implementation of CO2 electrochemical conversion technologies requires however to understand the demands of the technology on the larger system (e.g. feedstock availability, accessible infrastructure), as well as the demands of the system on the technology (e.g. flexibility). Such demands will differ depending on the product and the scale of deployment, and their assessment requires the integration of insights from technology, economics, value chains and policy aspects. This proposal aims to develop a novel framework to assess the contributions and trade-offs of CO2 electrochemical systems evaluated at realistic conditions, under centralised and decentralised configurations. This goal will be achieved by: - Developing a conceptual design framework to systematically selecting the product, size and operation strategy of CO2 electrochemical systems, and associated infrastructure. - Assessing the impact of process scaling on the techno-economic performance of PtX and PtXtP technologies. - Developing a supply chain model for centralised and decentralised configurations. - Identifying business models for selected PtX and PtXtP technologies.