Ecosystem functioning and carbon or water cycling are affected strongly by climate. In turn, climate can experience change if vegetation changes, such that both negative feedbacks (climate change buffered by vegetation) and positive feedbacks (climate change enhances vegetation change and vice versa) can occur. Mechanisms acting on long timescales are fairly well understood and are being included into global climate models. At shorter time scales, such as seasonal (phenological) change or interannual variability, these feedbacks are not yet well understood. Examples include the effects of changing timing of leaf emergence, or extreme dry seasons in the Amazon, changing regional moisture transport and enhancing effects on vegetation. Seasonality of vegetation and interannual variability are also included in global climate models, but only in a simple, empirical way, mainly for temperature-induced phenology. Drought-induced phenology (e.g. Amazon dry season dependence) and interannual variability are generally not captured adequately in those models. In this project we will primarily investigate the magnitude of feedbacks between changed seasonal and interannual variability on one hand and climate on the other. In addition, we will contribute novel model components to represent especially drought-induced seasonal and interannual variability, starting from the hypothesis that productivity in one particular moment of time affects the carbon and water uptake capacities in subsequent periods, and that leaves are shedded if their productivity becoms negative, leading to variability in carbon productivity and water use over time. Preceding the model development we will test the sensitivity of existing coupled climate models to the representation of phenology. Towards the end of the project we will have the newly developed components coupled to the EC Earth system and evaluate them for three key regions: the Amazon, Europe and Siberia, where good and substantial data sets are available to validate. Finally we will use future climate projections in the coupled and decoupled model versions to assess changes in the potential strength and sign of feedbacks.

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Drought affects more people than any other hazard today, and its impact is likely to further increase. Yet, means to induce, aggravate or alleviate drought are also in human hands. People’s use of water, water management, and trade have consequences for spatiotemporal patterns of drought. For example, technologies for managing water supply and demand may create new vulnerabilities or interrupt supplies elsewhere. To manage drought better, human influences on drought must be better understood. Current frameworks for drought monitoring and water accounting focus on the natural boundary conditions and therefore offer little help in distilling human influences on drought. This project combines insights from socio-hydrology and water management to produce an entirely new approach, incorporating the study of water-related human dimensions, socio-hydrological dynamics, and the structuring of dialogues among actors. The project will develop and test the integrated, participatory 3D Drought Diagnosis toolbox. We will investigate nested scale levels, related to local water resources and virtual-water transfers together with actor networks of users, managers, traders, and policymakers. Test case is the poor, drought-affected north-east of Brazil. Finally, the 3D Drought Diagnosis toolbox can be used to enable existing drought monitors to provide contextualized information in drought-affected regions worldwide. This research advances theoretical knowledge on human influences on drought. Tools based on this knowledge will empower actors to take timely and informed actions for anticipating and responding to drought. As such, lessons learnt from past droughts will be used to promote sustainable water management, enhance food security, and foster inclusive development.

Water for agriculture in peri-urban delta areas is vital to safeguard sustainable food production. Due to dynamics of urbanisation in deltas and climate change, water availability (drought and flood) is becoming erratic and farmers cannot rely only on their own experience anymore to plan farming operations. This research aims to develop tailor made water information services with and for farmers in peri-urban areas in the urbanising deltas of Accra, Ghana and Khulna, Bangladesh to contribute to water and food security in river deltas. This will be done by 1) combining new developments in internet and mobile technology with latest insights on knowledge sharing; 2) integrating weather model results with observations of groundwater trends and river discharges; and 3) attuning knowledge about adaptive decision making and enabling governance structures to local situations. These insights will be used to co-create and test water information services, consisting of knowledge sharing platforms and virtual communities. Enabled by NWO seed money, the consortium has organised workshops with key actors (farmers, governance actors and ICT professionals) in both areas. These stakeholders have contributed to this proposal and are committed to engage in the proposed research and innovation process. The co-production of water information services with local farmers will contribute to: livelihood improvement, empower small/medium farmers and build capacity for enhancing sustainable food production. Furthermore it will result in a business case by delivering design principles for viable farmer-oriented water information services in other urban-rural delta zones in the developing world.